Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/19/18)
Yesterday was, in my opinion, an amazing NFL slate and it turned out to be a very profitable one for me on both Draftkings and Fantasy Draft. The only play I really missed was Tre’Quan Smith… Held me back from a record-setting day but it’s all good. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Ben Simmons
Ben Simmons is priced 1k cheaper than he was a few games ago and finds himself in a fantastic matchup with a defensively weak Suns backcourt. We know what we’re getting with Simmons where he will be contributing across all categories outside of the 3-point ball. Simmons is a great bet for a triple-double tonight where he has the highest ceiling of all PG’s on this slate.
Fade: Patrick Beverly
Beverly is never really a great fantasy player averaged just .81 FP/min which just won’t cut it in today’s fast-paced, high-scoring NBA. At 4.9k, even against one of the worst defensive players in Young we’re not going to see much offensive production coming from Beverly. His limited scoring ability destroys his ceiling and is someone I cannot even consider on this slate.
Top GPP Play: Marco Bellinelli
I actually love this punt play that seems to be going a bit under the radar, which is surprising given Bellinelli’s 3.5k price tag which really opens up a ton. Belinelli is going a MAJOR pace up game with the Pelicans who notably have been weak defensively against guards this season. Belinelli has been getting minutes in the mid-20’s his past three games and should see that trend continue. I was extremely impressed to see his 28% usage rate last game which is very encouraging for his increasing role in this Spurs rotation. At 3.5k if he breaks the 20% usage rate plane he is going to destroy value which makes me think he’ll gain some more traction in the industry as lock approaches.
Fade: JJ Reddick
Reddick is an extremely similair style player to Bellinelli who is going to see just a couple extra minutes per game while receiving a similar usage rate. For 1.4k I think you get the equivalent type of projection/upside in terms of fantasy points on this slate. There is no reason to have exposure to Reddick tonight.
Top GPP Play: Cedi Osman
Osman has been pretty inefficient this season with some small hype around his name. Osman, however, has seen his price come down quite from 6k down to 4.5k on this slate. Outside of his last two games, Osman was seeing consistent minutes in the low 30’s which should provide him ample opportunity given his volatile usage rate to “spike” in a pace up matchup tonight with the Pistons. Only concern defensively is if Stanley Johnson gets matched up with Osman. A possibility but not something I see happening as he should carry Hood for his defensive assignment.
Fade: Jimmy Butler
People are going to want to play Butler on the new team, especially after his buzzer beater last week. However, Butler really is seeing a pathetic usage rate of about a 20% average over his last 5 games. What gives Butler the likelihood to hit value is the fact he’s heavily utilized seeing around 37 MPG. Philly shouldn’t need Butler to run himself into the ground in this game against the Suns and could see him getting a light load tonight. Easy fade at an elevated salary.
Top GPP Play: Rudy Gay
We’re really getting a huge bump for all the Spurs players tonight in which as of now is the third highest projected total on the slate. Gay looked very good the other night if you missed the highlight of him soaring for a slam-dunk which is a good sign of his health/conditioning as he continues to reach the twilight of his career. Gay obviously has a lot left in the tank and has had some awesome games this season. He provides a reasonably achievable 7x ceiling on this slate at 5.3k.
Fade: Juan Hernangomez
People are going to chase his last two games and they really shouldn’t be. Over the course of the last month, Hernangomez has been a < .8 FP/min player and is now price up to about 5k on Draftkings. Although this game should be fairly high-scoring and Hernangomez may reach the 30-minute mark again his usage is just too low for me to consider him here without feeling like I’m point chasing.
Top GPP Play: DeAndre Ayton
Again this is the clear pivot off of Willie Cauley-Stein who has shown the exact same minutes as Ayton but with a slightly higher average usage rate while on the floor. They both have shown basically identical fantasy upside averaging around 1.1 FP/min while on the court. While we do have to pay a premium for Ayton who is $700 more than WCS, we’re getting a MUCH better matchup with an UP pace game compared to a down pace one. Clear pivot in GPPs but you probably want to take the discount in cash.
Fade: Andre Drummond
Paying up 9.7k for the 1B isn’t really something I want to do on this slate where I much prefer the major discounts offered by Ayton/WCS and even Capela. Drummond has a tough matchup with Tristan Thompson who is basically a rebounder and rim protector limiting Drummond’s upside for those 20/20 games he basically will need to pay off value here. Easy fade.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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