Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown – (11/2/18)
Fun 8 game slate on our hands tonight. I’ll be grinding this slate pretty close to lock in the DFS Karma Discord so if you already don’t have a package make sure to get one and get my deeper insight into tonight’s slate. Also, check out my NFL GPP article which is live on the slate. I LOVEEE this week for GPPs in NFL. In addition, you can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Frank Ntilikina
Back to Ntilikina tonight as he is finally getting the minutes (30+ per game) and usage (21% projection) of a true feature point guard in the NBA. Although we know Ntilikina is not that talented from an offensive standpoint, he does contribute a ton of peripherals that should allow him to easily hit value on Draftkings at 4.1k tonight.
Fade: Luka Doncic
Doncic’s price has caught up to him and there is no way I’m going to be able to stomach paying 7.4k tonight for a guy who’s ceiling, in my opinion, is capped around 6x. There are too many better plays on the slate.
Top GPP Play: Dennis Schroeder
Schroeder has been pretty cold and inefficient to start the season. Obviously, this is NBA and something that will turn around in the 82 game sample size. Dennis has been seeing over 27% usage when he’s on the court while seeing a pretty heavy minutes load as well. The Wizards have been bottom three in the NBA guarding the shooting guard position (Wall will be on Westbrook – duh) so we could see Schroeder’s 8x upside in this spot.
Fade: Kawhi Leonard
Leonard’s price has finally eclipsed the 10k mark where he is a “fine” play but not someone who is going to provide you with that true upside you’re looking for when paying up in that 10k+ range like a Russell Westbrook or Anthony Davis provides. I can’t fit him in with my roster construction on this slate.
Top GPP Play: Otto Porter
Porter is another player who has been playing terribly this season coming off getting a max deal from the Wizards who I’m sure are extremely disappointed in the SF’s play thus far this season. As is with Schroeder, I’m not going to panic but instead buy low while their DFS prices are volatile and often incorrect this early into the NBA SZN.
Fade: Eric Gordon
Eric Gordon is going to need to score 30 real life points to hit value at this price and I don’t see a path for him to do that (outside of shooting 80% from the field which I guess is possible), with all the other mouths to feed on this new look Rockets offense. Gordon will have games when he goes for 40 DK points but at 5.9k I don’t think I can pull the trigger, even against a fast-paced Nets team.
Top GPP Play: Jabari Parker
Parker is seeing insane usage while on the court and is that close to popping off for a 50+ DK point game. If he can stay out of foul trouble, there is no doubt in my mind Parker crushes value tonight. My lock of the day.
Fade: Paul George
Ha Ha Ha. You didn’t get me last night Paul George and I see your price isn’t adjusted and you will not get me tonight. 9k for Paul George is way too much and is someone I am not even coming close to considering on this slate. Even at a thinner PF position, George doesn’t even cross my mind as someone I’m paying 9k for. Way too inconsistent and inefficient.
Top GPP Play: Jarrett Allen
Allen just needs to play over 30 minutes per game and he’d be a mid 7k priced center. He is a 1.08 fantasy point per minute player and really brings a ton of upside to the table, whether that be through double double’s or blocks. He basically challenges every single player around the rim and is athletic enough to block a ton of attempts in the paint, even dunk attempts (see Blake Griffin). Allen has 35-40 DK point upside in this spot (I also don’t mind Ed Davis in this spot where he should be getting more minutes in the rotation).
Fade: Rudy Gobert
Gobert has his work cut out for him with two defensive players of the year matching up. Gobert’s a little overpriced given his limited offensive ability and there are just so many better plays at center today (even Marc Gasol) that I can’t consider Gobert here.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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