Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/23/18)
I actually now hate Amari Cooper for breaking the slate yesterday where I basically had the nuts (outside of him obviously). Huge slate in NBA tonight and I’ll be doing a ton of my NFL work today as everyone is a bit behind with Thanksgiving. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Zach LaVine
We’ve seen a slight price drop on Zach LaVine after he failed to hit value in 2 of 3 of his last games. Outside of those two games, for the most part, LaVine has been an extremely reliable and consistent fantasy option this season averaging well over 1.1 FP/min. It’s also notable that his projected usage in this pace-up matchup with the Bulls is 3rd on the entire slate at PG, just behind Harden and Westbrook while ahead of guys like Kemba and Lillard. With the discount to LaVine on Draftkings, he makes for an ELITE play in the mid-high tier if you aren’t paying up 10k+.
Fade: Wayne Ellington
People are going to be on Ellington tonight in what should be a high scoring game but I really am not buying his ceiling in GPPs. He’s a guy who does all his damage from the 3-point line and is very volatile, especially when chalky. He doesn’t contribute in peripheral categories and I think his price is a little too high at 4.3k on Draftkings for his type of usage while on the court. This is an easy fade with the pace-down game for the Heat.
Top GPP Play: Jamal Murray
Jamal Murray at an analytical level looks extremely similair to Jrue Holiday tonight at about 2k cheaper. While the Nuggets haven’t been playing at a major pace this season it is notable this is a pace up game for them. Since Murray’s huge game against the Celtics where he scored 48 points, he has been struggling from the field but seems to be rebounding in his past two days exceeding value in both. Murray is on an upward trend right now and I want to take a shot at his ceiling tonight at a discount.
Fade: Rodney McGruder
I’m going to be staying away from the Heat backcourt tonight as they are all low usage players who are in line to play big minutes. I’ve seen this movie before and locking in this “value” is going to result in sweating out 5-6x the entire night rather than experiencing anything close to a ceiling game from these guys. At 4.8k, similair to Ellington, I’m taking the stance and fading McGruder tonight.
Top GPP Play: Jabari Parker
A guy I gave up on earlier in the season, Parker has flashed his upside at times this season, most recently in his last game against the Suns where he posted over 50 DK points. What was notable about this game was he attempted about 33% less shots which really waters my mouth at what his real ceiling is. This is a smash spot for Parker at 5.8k and he is one of my favorite plays on the slate.
Fade: Andre Iguadola
People are really going to play Iggy after, with Curry out, he’s been posting usage rates under 10%. Even with Draymond out I’m not convinced we’re going to see a major increase in usage or minutes. This is a play that definitely could burn me if somehow Iggy is extremely efficient from the field, but that is not the type of player he’s known for. Have fun rooting for rebounds and loose balls for Iggy to hit a notable ceiling.
Top GPP Play: Jae Crowder
Crowder is coming off two huge games where his usage seems to be trending upwards. It is notable the Jazz lost both of these games, so we don’t know if Crowder’s increased role in the offense is a positive thing for the team, but it is a positive thing for Crowder’s fantasy value. There are going to be a lot of fantasy points scored in this game and I actually think Crowder will see over 30 minutes on the floor as he matches up the best with a guy like LeBron James.
Fade: Giannis Antetokounpo
I don’t even want to think about Giannis here where he is priced well above 11k and is coming off a huge game. Giannis is not going to need to do much in this game for the Bucks to cruise to a victory and I think the head coach for the Bucks knows this. This game likely is only going to go 3 quarters and Giannis should not see heavy minutes on the floor. Not to mention the Suns play at a slower pace than the Bucks. This all sets up for a floorish game from Giannis.
Top GPP Play: Anthony Davis
Do not pay up Giannis when you can get AD tonight. We haven’t seen a down game from AD in about 20 days and he’s on an absolute role. It may seem stupid but the narrative of AD playing in New York tonight means something to him and I think he’ll be balling out while dominating the usage as usual for the Pelicans. Obviously, we know that both these teams play at a fast pace (Pelicans much higher), and Enes Kanter is one of the worst defensive players in the NBA who should find himself matched up with AD a bit. The Knicks have Mitchell Robinson, a rookie, who is a great defender and rim protector, but a rookie does not scare me in the slightest off AD hitting 70 DK points tonight.
Fade: Hassan Whiteside
If I’m paying up at center I want someone who is going to play heavy 30 minutes and tries the entire game. Whiteside is knowing for lacking motivation and often doesn’t even hit 30 minutes for the game. Obviously, this is an extremely scary fade with the type of FP/min monster Whiteside has been but I just can’t go that direction on a slate with so many better ways to go.
Written By: Robert Viafora