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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/26/18)

I’m going to switch back and forth between my main GPP/Fade article and this style of the article as I got some great feedback the other day.  Continue to let me know what you guys like and how you want me to relay my take on the slate.

Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Game Theory:

Just at a 1000 Ft. level, it is clear which game is going to have the most scoring tonight with the Bucks/Hornets far and away the highest over/under.  The spread is also pretty close so we know we’re going to NEED some pieces from this game tonight.  Giannis and Bledsoe is who to take if you’re paying up.  I prefer the value from the Hornets in Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller.

In basketball, GPP strategy is a bit different where injuries and other things open up plays that you MUST have in your lineups in order to have a realistic shot to win tonight.  Rodney Hood is that guy tonight where he’s going to be over 50% owned and is as close to a must play as there is.  Make sure to get him in your lineups.

Top Teams to get your GPP players from:

Cleaveland Cavs:  The Cavs don’t have one of the higher totals on the board tonight but they do have a lot of value opening up with Nwaba out tonight who was playing 35+ minutes per game.  This is where the Hood chalk comes from but there will be lower-owned spots to target in this game such as Kyle Korver if you’re punting who sees a 2.6% usage bump when Nwaba is off the court this season.  Jordan Clarkson is also a crazy high usage player who should see a bump in minutes.  His price is more adjusted for this type of scenario but is still a great GPP play with plenty of upside.  You can also look at Larry Nance Jr. who could see a minutes bump whereas he’s had an unpredictable workload this season.  He has 8x upside if he gets 25+ minutes on the court tonight.

Chicago Bulls:  Ironically another team that doesn’t have one of the best vegas implied totals on this slate but has a lot of value/ceiling plays opened up that we can take shots at in our deeper GPPs.  Ryan Arcidiacano is seeing MAJOR minutes on the floor and essentially hitting his floor without hitting any of his shots.  The Spurs have been one of the worst teams defensively against the guard position so if Ryan is ever going to see his shot fall it’ll be tonight. You can do a lot worse than 30 guaranteed minutes for a point guard priced 3.6k.  Wendell Carter just continues to get better as the season goes along now averaging 1.17 FP/min.  He was priced down due to his decrease in playing time but seems to be back to where he used to be (or at least trending there) coming off 30+ his last game.  Carter is one of my favorite GPP plays on the board at only 5.2k.  I don’t think we’ll see him priced this cheap for quite a while.

Boston Celtics:  There are a ton of pieces to like from this game.  In addition, this game, unlike the Bulls/Cavs, has a nice vegas implied total tonight.  Add in the huge pace up matchup with the Pelicans and this is a fantasy players dream for the suppressed prices of these Boston players.  Al Horford will be somewhat chalky seeing his price come down to 5.4k but comes at an ELITE value play where his floor should be 5x tonight.  It would be extremely difficult seeing him not hit value given his minutes and pace of this game but don’t expect a major ceiling from him.  Gordon Hayward is back to seeing over 30 minutes per game but his price has not adjusted because of his poor play.  If there was ever a get right game for Hayward it is this matchup where he should be taking a lot of shots.  Kyrie Irving is one of my favorite plays to pay up for tonight where he should score 30 real-life points and take around 20 shots minimum.  Marcus Smart and Marcus Morris are secondary options on this team in terms of fantasy but I do like them if they fit your lineup in GPPs and want more exposure to this game.

 

 

Rankings will be in terms of ceiling in order.

Point Guard

  • Harden
  • Walker
  • Irving
  • Holiday
  • LaVine

Shooting Guard

  • DeRozan
  • Beal
  • Thompson
  • Middleton
  • Rose

Small Forward

  • Giannis
  • Durant
  • Mirotic
  • Parker
  • Hayward

Power Forward

  • Davis
  • Aldridge
  • Randle
  • Sabonis
  • Gay

Center

  • Capela
  • Towns
  • Vucevic
  • Gobert
  • Carter

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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