Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/27/18)
With this being a short 5-game slate be sure to retract some of your bankroll exposure. I’ll be back to my GPP play vs. Fades for this slate. Be sure to hop in the DFS Karma Discord before lock to get my full and final thoughts on the slate. In addition, you can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Lonzo Ball
As you know if you are a regular DFS grinder today is a short 5-game slate where it will be necessary to take some risks to “spike” and differentiate your lineups in GPPs. Lonzo Ball and the Lakers volatile rotations allows for us to take some chances on this slate. Ball has seen anywhere from 18.5 MPG to 36+ MPG in his last 10 games so we can expect his ownership to be on the lesser side tonight with a lot of more secure PG options. Ball hasn’t been a huge FP/min player this season but still has that triple-double upside where he can stuff the stat sheet and comes in fairly cheap at 5.6k on Draftkings. The narrative is there as Ball and Jamal Murray have some beef so if you believe in those things, feel free to bake that into your take on Lonzo tonight.
Fade: Kyle Lowry
As usual, PG is a stacked position tonight and Lowry really doesn’t have much of a ceiling with his usage over the past 10 games not even eclipsing 20%. Now he gets a pace-down matchup against 1st team all defense Mike Conley? I’ll take a hard pass.
Top GPP Play: Bojan Bogdanovic
I’m a Bojan truther and with Oladipo out we’re going to see him chucking up shots for a usage rate over 20%. At only 4.9k on Draftkings I believe he has a ton of upside but keep in mind he is on the riskier side with a lower than average floor. Shooting guard is a position I’m willing to take this risk tonight.
Fade: Devin Booker
It will be extremely difficult for Booker to hit value at this price where he’s a player who heavily depends on his shot falling to hit value. If you think Booker is going to score more than 35 real life points tonight I think that Booker is a great play. If not, which is the likeliest outcome, avoid him tonight where some people will get sucked in with the name.
Top GPP Play: Justise Winslow
The Hawks have been one of the worst defensive teams this season and specifically below average against forwards. With this being a pace-up matchup for the Heat I think Winslow will get a lot of opportunities to score tonight as we can count on his floor of peripherals en route to him crushing value.
Fade: Kent Bazemore
Rule #1: Always Baze-Less. Bazemore is going to be on a minutes limit tonight where he shouldn’t see much more than 22 minutes. He’s got some upside which may lead people to go that route on a 5-game slate but I don’t see a world in which he hurts us playing 22 minutes tonight. Easy fade.
Top GPP Play: Trey Lyles
Trey Lyles SZN hasn’t happened yet this season but if there was a time to take a shot at Lyles it is on a slate like this. Lyles should begin to see more minutes in the Nuggets rotation as he is the better player compared to Hernangomez. Lyles contributes a high usage rate while on the court and finds himself in an up-pace matchup tonight. His upside is 10x at only 3.8k tonight. Let’s hope he gets the minutes he deserves.
Fade: Noah Vonleh
Price has caught up to Vonleh a bit but not really to the point where people are going to avoid him coming off a few massive games. I’m going to take advantage of these outliers and fade the public who will be chasing Vonleh points where his upside is capped a bit by his price. Vonleh sees outlier games where his 3-point attempts spike. I think we’ll need to see 5-7 3-ball attempts for him to hit above value tonight. Vonleh will need to see minutes with both Blake and Drummond on the floor tonight so fader beware but I just can’t see him continuing to hit threes at the clip he has over his past 5 games.
Top GPP Play: Domantas Sabonis
With Oladipo out we’re going to continue to see Sabonis get some additional run as they need to make up some points and usage being out of the lineup. Sabonis is price up where people will be scared off of him since he doesn’t consistently see over 30 MPG but I’m reading this game as if he will. He’s got 45 DK point upside.
Fade: DeAndre Ayton
Ayton is priced appropriately on this slate and I think this may be a more difficult matchup than we think with Myles Turner. Ayton does have a lot of upside but seeing a $500 price increase since his last game seems extreme. I don’t love this fade but I think it’s worth taking a stance on during this slate.
Written By: Robert Viafora