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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/30/18)

I’m going to switch back and forth between my main GPP/Fade article and this style of the article as I got some great feedback the other day.  Continue to let me know what you guys like and how you want me to relay my take on the slate.

Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Game Theory:

Outside of your typical value plays that open up my main focus is going to be on the five games on this slate basically narrowing down my team player pool to 10 different teams.  Elie Okobo is the mega-chalk tonight and someone you probably want to be over-exposed to in the majority of your lineups.  At the stone-minimum on Draftkings, I find it very difficult to believe he won’t crush value with 25+ minute tonight. Another play that stands out to me that doesn’t seem to be to popular with the public is D’Angelo Russell who’s price has come down a bit after a cold shooting night.  The key here was that Russell continued his extreme usage shooting 25 times from the floor.  After his 62 DK point night on the 25th we now know what kind of ceiling Russell has with LeVert off the floor. He’s my key to win GPP play tonight and will be in 100% of my lineups.  If you’re paying up make sure to check out my ceiling rankings below but I really prefer James Harden and Russell Westbrook on this slate.  They are the 1A and 1B plays in the top tier.

 

Top Teams to get your GPP players from:

Phoenix Suns:  People are going to be down on the Suns a bit after the chalk Jamal Crawford let them down on Wednesday.  However, I’m going back to them today with TJ Warren’s absence providing a ton of minutes for some of the younger players on this team.  I was amazed that Josh Jackson isn’t being talked about as close to as much as I thought on this slate at 3.8k.  It is a large slate so I guess people are scared off by his minutes but with Warren out I think we see that 25-30 range that should provide fruitful for Jackson in a matchup with a team terribly ranked in defensive efficiency.  I love the price drop we got on Devin Booker, bringing him back “into play” at 8.3k on Draftkings.  With Warren out, he should see a slight bump in minutes and a nice bump in usage.  He’s a great contrarian option if you’re looking to pay up at shooting guard.  Last but not least, the man that burned us all on Wednesday, Jamal Crawford, should see an extended run on the floor at 3.4k and has 10x upside if his shot can fall.  I’m not going to let a cold shooting night scare me off of him in this great matchup.

OKC ThunderAs I mentioned in my game theory breakdown I believe Russell Westbrook is the 1B option on this slate and is someone I’m trying to prioritize in my lineups which isn’t difficult given some of the value plays I am fond of on the Suns.  However, if I am fitting James Harden into my lineups I likely won’t have Westbrook, meaning I’ll want some leverage off this huge Thunder total.  Dennis Schroeder is my favorite pivot here at 5.7k where he’s been playing extremely well of late finding his role in this Thunder offense.  With Jeremy Lin out we should get a TON of Trae Young vs. Schroder in this game which is the most ideal thing, we could ask for in DFS.  A turnover prone young PG who is literally the worst defensive PG in the league.  I could see Schroeder going for 40+ DK points in this game.  If you’re looking for value for a punt, I have some interest in Alex Abrines who will be starting for the Thunder at the stone minimum on Draftkings tonight.  When starting, Abrines usually does see 25+ minutes on the floor and has flashed his shooting/scoring upside this season.  A player who has attempted 10 three-point attempts multiple times over the past months is going to garner some interest from me at 3k.  If we get one of those games tonight and Abrines is “on” he could outscore Okobo.

Atlanta Hawks:  I really do like the over in this Hawks/Thunder game which obviously correlates to a lot of my interest from a DFS perspective.  As I mentioned above, Jeremy Lin is out which means we should see HEAVY minutes for Trae Young tonight.  Although from most projections I look at have him around 28 tonight I think we get 35+ granted this game remains close.  Young has shown his upside with peripherals as he regularly contributes in the assist category posting huge 10/12/15/17 assist games at times over the past couple weeks.  This in addition to his 3-point shot taking gives him a massive ceiling on Draftkings.  Potentially a more popular option I am very high on from this Hawks team is John Collins.  Collins is seeing consistent 30 MPG with consistent usage but has yet to flash the insane FP/min upside he showed last year outside of a few games.  Collins has 8-9x upside tonight at 5.6k and is going to be one of my highest owned players on the slate.  Always know that you are taking on the foul trouble risk with Collins, although he seems to have cut back a bit in his 2nd year in the league.  Also, consider DeAndre Bembry and Taurean Prince from the Hawks as secondary options.

 

 

Rankings will be in terms of ceiling in order.

Point Guard

  • Russell Westbrook
  • Ben Simmons
  • Damian Lillard
  • Kyrie Irving
  • Kemba Walker

Shooting Guard

  • James Harden 
  • Devin Booker
  • DeMar DeRozan
  • Zach LaVine
  • D’Angelo Russell

Small Forward

  • LeBron
  • George
  • Jabari Parker
  • Josh Richardson
  • Jimmy Butler
  • Aaron Gordon

Power Forward

  • Anthony Davis
  • Blake Griffin
  • LaMarcus Aldridge
  • Julius Randle
  • Nikola Mirotic

Center

  • Joel Embiid
  • Andre Drummond
  • Clint Capela
  • Marc Gasol
  • Nikola Vucevic

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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