Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/7/18)
Huge 10-game slate on our hands tonight with a lot to like. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: De’Aaron Fox
Fox truly isn’t getting enough love for how he’s been balling out lately making major strides off his rookie season. The former number 5 overall pick has been off to an extremely hot start for the King’s posting the 5th highest player efficiency rating for PG’s on this slate at 19.46. He’s been an extremely productive fantasy player as well hitting 1.21 FP/m, which is good for 4th from PG’s on this slate behind only Lowry, Simmons, and Oladipo. Fox is seeing 30+ minutes per game and usage above 26% while his 6.1k price tag lags behind his production.
Fade: Rajon Rondo
This Lakers backcourt is one I will be avoiding for much of the near future. Between Lance, Rondo, Lonzo, Hart etc. there are way too many mouths to feed on what seems like an inefficient offense where people are still learning their roles on the new look Lakers. Rondo will spike at times when given the minutes but with Ball as the starter and Rondo priced up a bit I’ll be avoiding on a slate with this many options.
Top GPP Play: Jimmy Butler
Jimmy always loves showing up for big games and what bigger than in LA against LeBron and the Lakers. Butler has posted an insane 24.09 efficiency rate this season while producing a high FP/min rate while on the court. With already 4 games of 45+ DK points in the games he has played this season we should be expecting another 6x games from the 8.2k priced player in a pace up matchup against some of the softest defenders in the league. Pay up for Butler tonight whether he is popular or not.
Fade: Gary Harris
Harris finds himself in an extremely difficult matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies in what is a pace down matchup for the Nuggets. Harris provides a pretty safe floor on a slate like this but in today’s NBA DFS that simply isn’t enough in cash games and not even considered in GPPs. Nowadays it is crucial to find players that provide that “slate-breaking” ceiling and this just isn’t one of those spots for Harris. Full fade.
Top GPP Play: Jabari Parker
Talked with AC a bit on “buying-low” on Jabari Parker and although we didn’t see that huge game from him the other night, it is coming. He was producing and shooting around 50% from the floor. The peripherals haven’t come his way yet, but for a player of his size and athleticism, it is only a matter of time before the stars align. A pace up game with a Pelicans defense getting destroyed by forwards should provide the perfect opportunity.
Fade: LeBron James
Another player who provides a huge floor in LeBron James is probably my #1 fade on the board today. He hasn’t exactly looked like the LeBron James we saw in Cleveland last season, playing a bit more passive and giving the young guys more opportunities to score. LeBron has posted DK scores not hitting value at his price tag three games in a row and for some reason, his price jumped $400 facing a pace-down game with the Timberwolves where he should draw a ton of Jimmy Butler defense. Not exactly ideal. I would much rather pay 3k less for Jimmy Butler in a pace up game against LeBron James defense.
Top GPP Play: Paul George
Draftkings did a great job pricing up Dennis Schroeder for this matchup but didn’t really do the same for Paul George who should be extremely dominant until Westbrook comes back as the #1 option on this team. Paul George is going to be heavily relied on by this team and should see ~38 mpg while posting usage rates near 30%. At 9.1k he could post the highest raw score on this slate and I think he’ll be sub-12% owned.
Fade: Nikola Mirotic
Mirotic has been on fire from the field but the dud game is coming. He’s priced up at an insane 8.1k on Draftkings which is so hard to believe given all the options on this offense including Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday, and Julius Randle (all high usage players). The shooting is going to come back to Earth for Mirotic and this is a “sell-high” spot on Mirotic we should be fading.
Top GPP Play: Tristan Thompson
Thompson is going to see MAJOR minutes in this game guarding the Thunder bigs and should have the opportunity to post a nice ceiling given his price tag and projected workload. Thompson is essentially locked into a double-double here and I don’t get how he’s not being talked up more in the DFS industry. He’s a LOCK for value with upside tonight.
Fade: Hassan Whiteside
Whiteside is already banged up and if he takes the floor in this game will face the toughest defense in the NBA against the center position. Hard to believe it but this is a pace-down game for an already slower-paced Heat team. Priced at 7.8k and failing to hit 30 minutes in his past three games has me extremely concerned about Whiteside’s health/conditioning. Easy fade on this slate with some of the other centers available.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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