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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (11/9/18)

Honestly pretty disappointed with this 7-game Friday slate.  Usually, we have some more games to work with so make sure to adjust that fact with your bankroll management as I know people like to play more on Friday’s (watching games/payday).  Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: D’Angelo Russell

DLo finds himself on a pretty conservative minutes projection sheet tonight with around 25-26 minutes.  There is defintiely upside for more as Kenny Atkinson likes to run his rotation’s with who’s playing the best on that night.  DLO is priced at only 5.6k and offers 7-8x upside if he’s able to get on the floor for 30 minutes tonight in Denver.

 

Fade: Kemba Walker

Kemba’s price has caught up with him in a big way and in my opinion is way overpriced even with a positive matchup with the 76ers.  If you’re banking on Kemba having over 32% of his team’s usage tonight then koodos for you because that’s the only way he’ll be able to pay off this 9.4k salary tag.  I don’t see it happening.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play:  Reggie Jackson

Reggie Jackson arguably has the best induivudal matchup on the slate against Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks backcourt.  For that reason alone he’s in major consideration for me in GPPs where at 5.8k he should see similair minutes/usage to D’Angelo Russell but at about half the ownership.  Fantastic GPP play on this 7-game slate.

 

Fade: Nicolas Batum

Batum is really priced up as if he’s been a major factor for the Hornets this year but the fact is, you’d be a fool to pay over 6k for a guy who is going to see8-12% usage tonight.  He’s COMPLETELY overpriced as he’s been overly efficient and he will fall back to Earth over his next few games.  His usage rate is embarrassing for what he’s priced at on Draftkings tonight.

 

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play:  Otto Porter

I was on Porter in his last game (he was written in the SF spot in this same article) and he went off for over 8x at 44.50 DK points.  His price has only raised by $100 and while he is starting to get more popular on Draftkings tonight he’s close to a lock for me given his locked in minutes and rebounding to his old self.  Another game you want to buy low on Otto Porter.

Fade: Jayson Tatum

Tatum shouldn’t be that popular tonight but if for some reason you feel inclined to play him… don’t.  His player effiency rating has actually been down this year and now he finds himself on the road, in a tough matchup, in a pace down game with the Jazz.  He has failed to pay off his salary in 4/6 games and his price is higher than it has been in two weeks.  Easy fade.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Nemanja Bjelica

I remember last season when this guy was winning everyone all the money nightly.  Now he’s fairly price at 5.8k in a positive defensive matchup with a weak Kings front court.  His upside is 40+DK points and he has been flashing his fantasy production a bit this season averaging 1.18 FP/minute.  If he can keep this up he’s easily going to reach value in his projected 30 minutes of action tonight with upside to “break the slate” with only 7 games on the table and PF being a weak position tonight unless you’re paying up for Griffin.

Fade: Markieff Morris

Another extremely low usage player who doesn’t usually hit over 30 minutes per game there is really no need to play Morris in this spot.  At 5.1k he’s “appropriately” priced for his production and really doesn’t offer much of a ceiling unless he goes for a Serge Ibaka 14/14 shooting night.  Out of Porter and Bjelica I’m avoiding most Power Forwards on this slate.

 

Center

Top GPP Play: Willie Cauley-Stein

This is actually an awesome slate for centers so while I am listing WCS as my top option for GPPs I do think you have to try to fit in guys like Vuc, KAT, Drummond, and Howard.  Love that DK has the UTIL spot to plug these guys in and construct some dual-center builds as will be a popular build across my lineups tonight.  WCS is finally seeing elitre center usage and starting to see his minutes rise while contributing all across the stat sheet to bring his fantasy point per minute rate up to 1.17 on the season.  This is a great matchup for centers and I think WCS dominates the paint.

 

Fade: Hassan Whiteside

People are going to be chasing the Whiteside points and while he did go off for an insane score, his price rose, he’s barely projected for 30 minutes, and I am nervous with how he will be used if the Pacers run small with Sabonis at the 5.  This just doesn’t seem like a great matchup for Whiteside who could be stretched out of the paint often and I think his minutes take a hit here.  Bold call tonight is he plays under 30 minutes and fails to hit 5x at 10+% ownership.

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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