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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/12/18)

Huge slate on our hands so I’ll try to get in depth as much as I can in my article today listing some complimentary plays I’m considering as I’ll be on the road from 430-830 tonight so will rarely be on my phone. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Donavan Mitchell

Mitchell and Trae Young are my top GPP options on this slate and they both fall in the same price range around the mid-tier 6-6.6k.  Donovan Mitchell is going to be given the edge however due to his slight increase in edge in minutes, usage, and pure talent.  Mitchell has posted a solid PER so far this season and while he has been a bit more streaky than last year, his price reflects that as this is the cheapest he’s been since November of 2017.  Keep that in mind.  Mitchell is a talent that is not going to remain this cheap for long and is projected for under 10% ownership tonight, where ownership will be diluted, in a pace-up matchup.  This is a smash spot for a Mitchell 40-burger.

 

Fade: Malcolm Brogdon

Although Brogdon has been getting consistent minutes for the Bucks, he is not a valuable piece to have in this offense.  Factor in his increased price tag of 5.8k, due to his over-production in FP/min, now in a pace-down game against some pretty tough Pacers defense and I would make the case for 0% exposure on 150 lineups tonight of Brogdon.  Jr

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play:  Kevin Huerter

Huerter is not a guy I’m high on from a talent perspective but keep in mind he plays in one of the fastest paced offenses in the NBA while seeing over 30 minutes a game.  The chalk tonight will be spread in the value tier between McConnell and Kennard while Huerter will fly under the radar projecting extremely similair to the other two in the models and projections I’ve analyzed.  It is considerable Herter has slightly the best matchup of the three as well.  This is a perfect game theory move that could give you a major edge in your GPPs tonight.

 

Fade: Andrew Wiggins

With Butler gone it has been surprising to see Wiggins get worse in essentially every statistical category.  After posting three games in a row with 20+ points Wiggins has seen a price jump to 6.3k from 5.6k.  This noticeable price hike is surprising given only one game over this three game stretch Wiggins has been productive would his DK score have exceeded value at his now current price.  Playing Wiggins tonight is a bet he scores 30 or more real points which he would need to post a signfiicant GPP score given his minimal contributions across other tatistical categories.

 

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: DeMarre Carroll

I don’t love that the Nets aren’t giving him his full minutes yet as he now needs to carve his spot back in the rotation but he is one of the top options off the bench seeing 22-25 minutes per game.  The Nets like to use the veteran Carroll to guard star SF’s like LeBron, Leonard, and Jimmy Butler/Ben Simmons.  With Jimmy doubtful tonight it could hurt the prospective of an increase in Carrol’s minutes but I’m not as concerned.  That’s the route I see them going tonight while will likely end up with Carroll getting some extended run on the floor.  With that being said, Jimmy (if he plays) and Ben also plays some pretty tough defense that I never usually like targeting but Carroll is only 3.6k  He doesn’t need to do much to hit value and if he can score tonight he will post an insane value.

Fade: Harrison Barnes

Barnes has really turned into an inconsistent player this year which is suprising given I thought he’d enjoy the role of not being the offense’s #1 option anymore.  Jordan and Doncic both significantly take away to his rebounding and while his scoring upside is still there, it is much less consistent than we’ve seen over the past two seasons.  Barnes is an extremely volatile upside who’s 7x ceiling at this price doesn’t make any sense.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Kevin Durant

Pivoting to low-owned studs like Durant is one of the oldest an dmost effective strategies in GPPs.  While in the value-tier, you usually want to stick with the “chalk” I always enjoy making pivots in the high-tier where a player’s ceiling is still intact, however it is just “less-likely” to hit.  That is the case with Durant tonight as people will probably think “Kawhi defense” and fade.  This may be the case however I imagine we see a ton of Paul Siakam on Durant tonight which is a tough matchup but not one that the best scorer in NBA history can’t overcome for a huge night.  Durant’s price has come down to 9.6k with the return of Steph Curry but has only see a slight decline in his FP/min.  While I don’t think we’ll see a 78 DK point game Durant showcased while Curry was out, the possibility of 60-65 DK points is real here and I want exposure.  Durant could break this slate at 5% ownership.

 

Fade: Domantis Sabonis

While when appropriately priced, Sabonis has a massive ceiling, his decrease in minutes and price increase really cap the value I’m looking for on such a big slate.  Sabonis is seeing under 25 minutes per game while priced at 6.7k currently on Draftkings, without seeing a crazy high usage rate with Myles Turner playing.  If that is something that interest’s you given this is an up-pace matchup, be my guest.  I am fading.

 

Center

Top GPP Play: Joel Embiid

Power forward and center are position’s you want to pay up for tonight.  While I’m sure Embiid will be poopular tonight he is one of my favorite plays on the slate and needs to be included in this article.  Embiid is projected an INSANE 35% usage rate tonight with a mintues projection over 35 minutes.  These numbers for a center are unheard of and if Jimmy is out you need 100% Embiid in your lineups because he could go for 80 DK points.  Jarrett Allen cannot matchup up with thicker opponents and the Nets have no one who will be able to guard him.  Jarrett Allen could foul out in the first half.

Fade: Noah Vonleh

Relative to his price on Fanduel, Vonleh is close to unplayable on Draftkings at 5.6k.  Vonleh provides minimal GPP upside at his price while things are not looking good for the Knicks as it was announced Fizdale will be chaning up the starting lineup/rotations.  I’m taking a wait and see approach on this Knicks offense and waiting for Vonleh’s price to come down back to the 4.8-5k range.

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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