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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/17/18)

Medium 8-game slate tonight with a few different ways to go. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

Monkey Knife Fight PLAY OF THE DAY: 

DeMar DeRozan: Over 22.5 Points

Joel Embiid: Over 22.5 Points

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BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Ryan Arcidiacono

Ryan is priced at 4.2k which is pretty modest for his price but his ceiling is around 8-9x.  The value play at this tier is between Ryan and Jamal Crawford.  If you’re looking to bet on Crawford it is slightly more risky given he gets about 10 minutes less per game but sees around a 7% higher usage rate.  Ryan Arcidiacono is getting the better matchup tonight in terms of pace and he’s who I’m taking my shot on in the value tier.

 

Fade: Emmanuel Mudiay

People may be chasing Mudiay’s huge game from the other night but I’m not buying into it.  Mudiay shot at a crazy efficient rate that won’t happen again and he got to play in overtime.  His price rose up to 6.2k and is completely out of consideration for me.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play:  Mikal Bridges

Bridges is a perfect pivot off of Jamal Crawford as someone who is playing 10 more minutes a game, contributes in more peripheral categories, and can still knock down 3-pointers.  Bridge’s is extremely modestly priced on Draftkings and will be a staple in my lineups tonight in the value tier at SG/SF.

 

Fade: JJ Reddick

With Butler back in the lineup tonight I have little to no interest in JJ Reddick who is priced well above 5k.  Reddick is seeing the minutes but his FGA/game decrease with Butler on the floor as well as his usage rate.  Reddick will need to score 25 or more real life points to post a significant GPP score at this price.

 

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: DeMar DeRozan

I’m not usually a huge DeRozan guy but his price has come down significantly over the past few weeks and this matchup against the 76’ers provides a great up pace game for this Spurs team.  What’s different about DeRozan this year is that he is consistently contributing with rebounds/assists, moreso than he has in years past.  Given the pace of this game, if DeRozan can have an efficient scoring night he will be one of the top players to pay up for in the mid-high tier on the slate.

Fade: Andrew Wiggins

Unfortunately for Wiggins I will almost never play him in NBA DFS until his price comes down and you shouldn’t either.  Not only had Wiggins been shooting extremely poorly since the departure of Butler, even after posting 4-straight 20+ point games he was able to hit 6x in only one of them.  Wiggins needs a 30 point game in this matchup to have the chance to post a significant GPP score.  He’s an easy fade for me.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Tobias Harris

Harris has been playing out of his mind this season leading the Clippers to a 17-12 record good for 5th seed in the West.  Harris has seen his price drop down to 7.2k which really locks in a safe 5x floor with much room for upside. Although this isn’t one of the highest totals on the slate, it is a game I project to hit the over of 217.5, with Harris playing a significant role on the Clippers side who will need him to score if they’re expecting to keep up with Lillard/McCollum/Nurkic.  Harris’s 25%+ projected usage rate tonight as a power forward playing HEAVY minutes just solidifies my interest for him.

 

Fade: Rudy Gay

Even with Ruday Gay playing incredibly this year his price more than represents that at 6.2k where Gay usually doesn’t see over 30 minutes per game and his usage rate has slighlty declined now averaging out around 21% in his last four matchups.  I believe this is a game DeRozan is HEAVILY leaned upon (another reason I’m all for DeRozan) and Gay will likely fall as a 3rd/4th option for this offense likely falling around 25 DK points.  There is little to no 7x+ upside for Gay tonight.  He’s a fade in GPPs.

 

Center

Top GPP Play: Nerlens Noel

First of all this is a fantastic matchup for opposing centers.  Actually the best matchup for a center on this entire slate.  With that being said, the projections I’ve analyzed have Noel around 15-20 minutes tonight.  However, the Thunder have a great chance of blowing the Bulls out of the water with a 12.5 spread that has moved in favor of the Thunder.  If Noel can get extended run on the court tonight he could easily go off for 8x.

Fade: Draymond Green

Green’s price is much worse on Draftkings and this sets up for an extremely difficult matchup for the Warriors tonight against one of the best defensive teams in the league between Mike Conley/Marc Gasol/Kyle Anderson/Jaren Jackson.  The total on this game is the lowest on the slate and this whole game screams fade to me.

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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