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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/27/18)

Shorter slate today so we’ll try to keep the article concise and narrow down the player pool for some GPP pivots. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

 

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Donovan Mitchell: Mitchell’s price is just way too low.  While I will definitely be heavily exposed to the Lakers without LeBron James, they will obviously be extremely chalky so I’m going to limit any talk about them on this slate.  With that said, Mitchell offers 50 DK point upside at 6.7k in a pace up matchup against the 76ers where he is projected for 10-15% ownership.  He is a fantastic GPP pivot off the chalk at PG or SG.
  2. Malcolm Brogdon: We saw his upside two days ago on Christmas where he was a GPP winner at 2% owned.  Brogdon plays with the starters but also finishes out games if there is a major blowout.  With a spread of -14.5 today that is a legitimate concern I have when targeting big name players in this game.  Brogdon is in that low-mid tier range and offers some exposure to this game with upside without a major Pt/$ floor.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Bogdan Bogdanovic: Bogdanovic didn’t come through with a ceiling game last night but with the highest total on the slate and his ceiling remaining in that 45-50 DK range.  This is the highest total on the slate and the Kings rank 3rd of the 10 teams in projected points scored.  Bogdan saw about 7-8 minutes less than what was projected for him last night which led to a decrease in his output.  This recency should suppress the ownership on him tonight where he remains an elite play it GPP formats.
  2. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope:  KCP might be the lowest-owned viable player from this Lakers squad.  He has all but fallen out of the rotation the past month with Josh Hart taking the reigns on the backup SG duties.  KCP is projected to see an increase in minutes and usage tonight as Josh Hart has been moved to the starting position with LeBron out.  It pains me to plug KCP into my lineup but if he is shooting efficiently he has the ability to post a 30-35 DK point night which would be huge in any format.

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Khris Middleton: Middleton is one of the best plays on the slate by far.  The sharps are going to know this and play him leading to fairly high ownership.  However, some of the fish in DFS who effectively got burned by Middleton on Tuesday are not going to want to play him in the “same exact spot” tonight.  Middleton is way too cheap right now for his role in this offense and is a LOCK for 6x tonight with plenty of upside.
  2. Buddy Hield: Hield is another piece of this Kings team I’m going to have a ton of exposure to tonight where he really isn’t projected to be that highly owned.  While his price is not ideal it is acceptable considering Hield’s role in this fast paced offense.  Hield’s usage rate remains in the mid to high 20% range and combined with his ~35 minutes per game, Hield is quickly becoming an underrated “star” in the NBA.  6.9k is more than an acceptable price to play for a player that has a realistic 50 DK point ceiling tonight.

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Jonas Jerebko: Jerebko killed my Christmas day lineups, but thanks to Yahoo’s massive overlay I was able to cash with ease.  Jerebko only played 11 minutes on Christmas day compared to the consistent 20+ minutes he’s been seeing over the past month.  Jerebko should go back to seeing those type of minutes tonight and we saw a big price decrease because of this last game.  He’s a fantastic GPP play at 3.7k tonight.
  2. Jae Crowder: I don’t exactly love Crowder’s ceiling at this price but I do think the likely hood of a 6.5x-7x game from him is extremely likely.  Crowder is playing between 25-32 minutes per game while seeing a modest usage rate that ranges from 15-27%.  Surprisingly they are projected for a lot of points tonight against the Sixers and if Crowder can get into double digit scoring he should cruise to value on Draftkings at less than 10% owned.

 

 

Center

Top GPP Plays: Ivica Zubac is the top play at center by far.  I’ll have around 65-75% exposure.

  1. Noah Vonleh: After Zubac, ownership is pretty evenly spread out between the rest of the centers.  I love Noah Vonleh considering the minutes he’s been playing and his offensive efficiency even with a modest usage rate.  This is a pace up game for the Knicks in a positive matchup for Vonleh in which he was able to dominate on Christmas day given his price tag.  Similair situation tonight and I’m close to all in on Noah Vonleh.
  2. Brook Lopez: Lopez is now seeing consistent minutes in this offense and has a pretty clear role carved out for him.  As a stretch five, he offers a lot of upside at a position that usually doesn’t bring it when you’re below 5k on Draftkings.  If Lopez can rebound effectively he will have the oppurtuntiy to go for between 6-8x on Draftkings tonight.  The scoring should be there.

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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