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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (12/3/18)

We have an OK 7 game slate today. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: Trae Young

Young shouldn’t end up being too popular tonight with some plays like Teague, Sexton, and Lou Williams a bit cheaper who project similarly.  However, Young is going to see more usage than two out of three of those more popular guys outside of Lou Williams who won’t see 25 minutes on the floor tonight.  Young is locked in for about 30 minutes while maintaining that high usage rate which is translating to 1.1 FP/min this season.  This game has an INSANE 236 over/under and the Hawks are going to need Young to do a lot of scoring if they want to keep up with the Warriors.

 

Fade: James Harden

Obviously, it’s always tough to “fade” a guy like Harden but I prefer other guys in this high-tier tonight.  This doesn’t mean I think Harden is going to score 20 DK points.  His floor is still around 40 DK points but relative to his price I prefer other guys in this price range.  Chris Paul is back and Harden isn’t going to see than insane usage he has been.  Russell Westbrook is my favorite play at essentially the same price.

 

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play:  Rodney Hood

The Nets are free-falling lately and really letting down on the defensive end which leads for this to be a fast-paced high scoring matchup.  Rodney Hood is only 4.3k on Draftkings tonight and is going to see 33-35 minutes in this tight Cavs rotation.  This game only has a 212 over/under but I’m on the OVER.  This seems like a game where the Nets play at a pace closer to last year.  Both these teams are bottom half of the league in defensive efficiency.  I’m projecting Hood for 25+ DK points tonight.

 

Fade: Klay Thompson

I understand this is a huge total but Thompson is going to need to put up a major point total in order for him to hit somewhere close to his ceiling tonight.  We will literally have to see one of those 40-50 point nights from Thompson as he’s priced at 7.4k. With Curry back and the Warriors essentially at full strength (Draymond doesn’t count as he contributes next to nothing in scoring), I’m fine avoiding Thompson tonight.  In addition, I prefer Curry and Durant as high-tier plays tonight.  I’ll have 0 Klay.

 

 

Small Forward

Top GPP Play:  E’Twaun Moore

Moore has actually been really good this year contributing in multiple categories and posting a high true shooting %.   With the emergence of Tim Frazier’s role in this offense, Moore has dropped to the cheapest player in the starting lineup on a team implied for 120 points.  If Moore can pick up some peripherals he will crush his price tag tonight offering 7-8x upside.

Fade: Tobias Harris

Harris is “safe”. Don’t get me wrong I’m sure he’ll fall somewhere between 30 and 45 DK points tonight but no shot this man hits over 50DK points and he’s priced at 8.1k, likely bumped up because of this pace-up game.  However, this will be a difficult matchup as he can find himself matched up with Julius Randle or Davis at times which will be tough for him to score as he has been over the past couple weeks.  I think he’s over-priced for cash/GPP but “safe” if you’re looking for a floor.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Jeff Green

I think the Jeff Green punt makes a lot of sense tonight at 3.8k on Draftkings where he projects for over 22 minutes on the court and has a solid usage rate for a PF off the bench.  Green’s been on fire when on the court lately, averaging over .9 FP/min over the past month.  He has a positive offensive/defensive matchup tonight in a game with a surprisingly high over/under at 229.  He could go for 30+ DK points at this price.

Fade: Robert Covington

Covington is a play similar to Tobias Harris where his floor is pretty intact but doesn’t offer any sort of ceiling at his current price.  Covington is 6.8k as mainly a 3&D player for the Timberwolves in a lower usage role than he saw on the 76ers.  His insane minutes will give him that floor but it would be tough to stomach a player, playing close to 40 minutes a night to hit 4x.

 

Center

Top GPP Play:  Dewayne Dedmon

This is another sort of punt play at the position where obviously Dedmon won’t be the highest raw scoring player at this position but carries a ton of upside at just 3.8k on a slate where I’m paying up big at PG and SF.  Dedmon is projected for over 22 minutes in the highest scoring game on the slate.  He’s been about 1 FP/min this season and I could see him outscoring that mark in this positive matchup against undersized Looney/Jerebko.  Dedmon is a LOCK for 5x on this slate.

Fade: Jarrett Allen

I’m usually all on board with Nets players if they have some sentiment in the industry which is the case with Allen tonight but I’m not seeing it.  Thompson is the type of center Allen struggles mightily with as he just doesn’t have the strength to outrebound or post up heavier players.  Allen’s price is creeping up now in the 5.5k range.  He does have enormous upside if his periphrials (Blocks/Steals) are falling his way but I don’t think he has a huge scoring/rebounding ceiling tonight.

 

 

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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