Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
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The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Play: Josh Hart
Hart definitely let us down in a big way last night but as a rookie, we’re going to deal with a lot of inconsistencies and I’m confident heading back there today. Hart is locked in for close to 30 minutes tonight and will have a difficult time doing less than he did in 36 minutes last night. This was his 3rd lowest usage game on the entire season and something that shouldn’t continue with the expanded role while Ingram is out.
Fade: D’Angelo Russell
Russell is definitely playing out of his mind right now but he is not someone I’m looking to pay over 8k for. Russell is typically a pretty inefficient shooter and on the second leg of a B2B where he’s projected under 30 minutes, I’m comfortable fading tonight. I also don’t love the matchup if Ntilikina is paired up with Russell as essentially the only thing the former first-round pick can do is defend and I believe the Knicks will role him out there for an extended amount of time tonight to guard Russell.
Top GPP Play: Malik Beasley
There is a ton to love from this Nuggets/Hawks game and I’m going to start with a value play in Malik Beasley who has been a solid FP/min scorer for his role and is now seeing 30 minutes a night with all the Nuggets injuries. This is an insanely high pace up game for the Nuggets and one that should allow Malik Beasley to THRIVE (hopefully he sees some Trae Young defense as well).
Fade: Bradley Beal
UPDATE: Wall is in. Hurts Beal even more!
I don’t like paying this high for a SG who will need an extremely efficient night from the field in addition to rebounds and assists in order to hit value. Obviously, Beal’s floor is elevated with Wall being out as he is locked in for over 20 shot attempts but that is not alone enough for Beal to hit GPP value at 8.8k.
Top GPP Play: Justise Winslow
If you aren’t comfortable playing Josh Hart as he is fairly scoring dependent, I love the pivot to Justise Winslow at a similair price point but someone who is a consistent contributor in various peripheral categories playing heavy minutes for the Heat. Winslow continues to gain investment from the Heat as they try to stick with him and I believe in Winslow as a player.
This was the same analysis from last night and most everything holds true. Winslow went for 10x last night (43 DK points) and ended up helping my boy @Joshua (you know him if you’re in our discord chat) take home a couple G’s! This is a slighlty worse matchup for Winslow but we’re not exactly looking for 10x upside every night!
Fade: Kelly Oubre
UPDATE: Wall is in. Hurts Oubre even more!
Similair to Beal, this is just not a great spot for the Wizards in a major pace down game with the Cavs. Obviously, the boost from Wall being out plays a role in the chatter around these Wizards players but most of that will go to Beal and his price is fairly adjusted for his role. Oubre is still not seeing 30+ mpg and has showed that his role in this offense doesn’t provide much upside.
Top GPP Play: Trey Lyles
Most popular play on the slate? Probably. Absolute 100% lock in all of my lineups? Definitely. This is similair to the Muscala or Bam situation last night. You’ll NEED Lyles in your lineup tonight to compete. Don’t get too cute.
Fade: Jayson Tatum
Tatum’s floor is solid but in one of the lower implied point totals on the board I’m uninterested in the young forward at 7k. Tatum’s a better play on Draftkings than Fanduel but if you’re looking for a “ceiling” game from Tatum tonight the most I would expect is 6x at his current price. In today’s NBA DFS that is not going to cut it in GPPs. Fade!
Top GPP Play: Larry Nance Jr.
The minutes are back tonight for Nance in a major pace up game for the Cavs. With so many other options at PF/C tonight, Nance is going to go overlooked and his ownership is going to dip as a result. Nance has legitimate 8-10x upside at this price, I’m just hoping we get a usage spike out of him as those are the games he truly flashes his upside.
Fade: Jarret Allen
The price is towards the higher part of the spectrum where it should be for Allen and as I mentioned before he struggles with “beefier” opponents like he gets tonight with Enes Kanter, who is obviously known as someone to exploit on the defensive side of the court but between Kanter and Vonleh, Allen’s rebounding ceiling is surely decresaed. I’m fading in this matchup at such a sweet position tonight there is no reason to play Allen.
Written By: Robert Viafora