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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (2/4/19)

I’m going to keep the structure of my article I ran through on Friday and Sunday tonight.  Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.   You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Hawks Vs. Wizards

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Tom Satoransky: I know I was on Satoransky a couple nights ago where he let me down but I’m not going to let the recency bias hurt me from going back to him in a prime spot.  His price has come down a bit to a much more reasonable 5.6k on Draftkings.  Although he is not a high usage guard he is averaging close to 1 FP/min over the past month and has one of the best matchups we can ask for for a point guard.  Satoransky should be able to pick up a lot of rebounds in this matchup against a smaller Hawks backcourt. This has seemed to be the key to his upside and this seems to be an ideal matchup.  Look for him to be locked into 32+ minutes tonight with 40 DK point upside.
  2. Bradley Beal: I didn’t mention it for Satoransky but the total on this game is insane.  Bradley Beal is priced way up to 9k but is playing THAT good.  The Wizards are implied for close to 120 points tonight.  I am going to have a ton of Satoransky and Beal to soak up as many points from this team as I can.  I think these two will have the most efficient games from a scoring perspective rather than guys like Ariza, Green, and Porter who are not known for their scoring.  Beal has been on fire since Wall went down and I feel like he’ll be going under-owned because of his price.  I think a 30+ real point game is coming.  He has a massive ceiling.
  3. Taurean Prince: Coming back on the other side, I don’t think I can pay the 7.6k price tag for Trae Young but I do love an underpriced Prince who’s been having a great season from the field.  Prince is priced great on both sites and is someone I’m definitely going to have exposure to coming back in this game where I’ll have close to 100% Tomas and Beal.  Prince should take on a nice scoring role tonight in a great matchup.

Bucks Vs. Nets

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Brook Lopez:  Brook Lopez has turned into everything the Lakers wanted from their center and looks like they made a huge mistake by not signing him to a bargain deal.  Lopez is on fire from deep of late and is not shy about taking them either, taking between 5-8 a game.  Lopez’s footwork and craftiness are one of the most underrated in today’s NBA and obviously this is a major narrative game as Lopez is one of the greatest Nets of all time.  Locked in for 30+ minutes in this Bucks rotation in what is projected to be a high-scoring tight game, Lopez should have his way against the Nets stiffer frontcourt.
  2. Khris Middleton:  I’m likely going to be fading Giannis tonight which is extremely risky but I’m just on some other high-tiered guys I think are in better spots.  To go with the correlation of this fade in GPP’s getting exposure to Middleton could be key.  Middleton is still underpriced for his ability and has been racking up the peripherals of late.  The Nets are always a great team for guys like Middleton to get their rebounds up on and if he can put this together with a solid night from the field he should hit value with easy.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him lead the Bucks in scoring tonight.
  3. D’Angelo Russell: DLo has truly taken over this Nets teams with injuries to their other key contributors in Dinwiddie and LeVert.  DLo is projected to have over a 30% usage rate tonight where he should be locked in for 32+ minutes if this game stays relatively close which is probable.  Russell is not priced at 8k despite ranking second on the slate only behind James Harden in projected usage.  This is a major bargain for Russell as he should be approaching the 9k price range soon.  Take advantage.

Spurs Vs. Kings

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Bryn Forbes:  Spurs games are always tough and risky to figure out but Vegas loves them in this up-tempo game against the Kings on the road where Vegas expects the Kings to dictate the pace.  Forbes is projected to play over 32 minutes tonight priced only 4k on Draftkings. An absolute bargain that I will have in a ton of my lineups.  He and Patty Mills will likely be popular (Mills will get higher ownership) and I think it’s a major edge to have more exposure to Forbes tonight where his ceiling/minutes/usage will be higher. People are making a mistake by owning more Mills than Forbes (not to say you can’t play both).
  2. Bogdan Bogdanovic: The King’s side Bogdan remains in that price range where his ceiling is essentially elite.  His minutes fluctuate a bit but Bogdan has a 40+ DK point ceiling any time he gets a decent matchup.  He seems underpriced on Draftkings at just 5.6k where he is over a fantasy point per minute scorer.  People will likely be scared off by the ‘Spurs’ but tonight the total in this game is 229 with a TIGHT two-point spread.  Obviously, we can’t project overtime but it seems to be a real possibility tonight in Sacramento.
  3. Marvin Bagley:  Bagley is incredible when he gets the minutes and he may just need to play a lot tonight where he matches up nice with Bertans/Aldridge in the Spurs frontcourt.  In his last four games, he has played 27 or more minutes, Bagley has crushed value.  His minutes seem to spike randomly and if we can catch one of those 35-minute games from Bagley tonight, 8-9 x is a real possibility which would be huge for our GPPs on Draftkings.  He’s high on my list.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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