Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (2/5/19)
Solid 8-game slate today that I’m feeling pretty confident in. We’ll try to find some spots to expose in my article today. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Plays:
- Ben Simmons: Ben Simmons is shaping up as my favorite play on this slate and while I don’t think he’ll be a particularly low-owned player I do believe there will be a large leverage opportunity by being overexposed to him on this slate where people are going to be scared off by Kawhi defense. This is not a particularly difficult matchup for Simmons to exploit where I don’t believe Leonard will be playing a lot of man defense as obviously the Sixers will be running a ton of pick and rolls with Embiid who also is in a fantastic matchup against the under-sized Ibaka. Simmons is only 8.6k and has been producing the best he has all season averaging close to 1.4 FP/min. The total on this game is at 231 and projected to stay tight. Simmons is a lock for me tonight.
- Jordan Clarkson: If you’re looking to find some cheaper value at the PG position, Clarkson (as well as SGA) offer a ton of upside at a modest price point. While I usually avoid targeting players from the Cavs, his minutes have been stable the past two games (around 30) and his usage rate has stayed consistent with his season hovering around the 30%+ mark. He’s destroyed value in three straight games and has another 8-9x ceiling tonight against the Celtics.
Top GPP Plays:
- Lou Williams: If you don’t get exposure to Shai you likely want to get some shares of Lou Williams as this Clippers backcourt is primed for a big game. Walker grades as one of the worst defender in the league and Williams has been on fire of late. Over the last couple weeks the Clippers guard is averaging 1.33 FP/min and outside of his last game against the Raptors (blowout), he had posted five consecutive games of exceeding value for his Draftkings price. His price has actually come down a bit and now sits at just 7.3k. Williams is a lock for value tonight in my opinion with 50+ DK point upside. Fantastic play.
- Jimmy Butler: I’m pretty high on all three bigs for the Sixers today with Simmons, Butler, and Embiid on my radar. While I will not be playing all three in a lineup it could be sharp to pair up a combo of the three whether that be Simmons/Butler or Simmons/Embiid. Butler is obviously idged about not making the all-star team and it showed in his last game against the Kings where his usage rate spiked and he went off for 29 points and 50 DK points. His price is still extremely reasonable at just 7.5k and if you’re looking to pivot off the Lou Williams play I listed above, Butler is the way to go.
Top GPP Plays:
- Evan Fournier: SF is a position I’ll be paying semi-down for today with Fournier and Batum. Both players offer a solid ceiling given their price tags on Draftkings. His cold shooting has brought his price down to 5.1k which is a complete bargain for the type of minutes he’s locked into on this Magic rotation. Fournier would have to have a disastrous night not to hit value at this price. His upside is over 40 DK points and given the pace + total of this game I think that will be a real possibility.
- Nicolas Batum: Batum is a do it all player who contributes across a lot of different categories. His price has slowly been creeping up on Draftkings over the last two weeks after posting above expected value in eight straight games. The Hornets are surprisingly favored in this game that holds a 224 total. Batum is going to be a significant contributor if this game plays out like Vegas is telling us it will.
Top GPP Plays:
- Blake Griffin: Blake is another guy I’m looking to prioritize as someone to pay up for on this slate. The addition of DeAndre Jordan might be able to help the horrid interior defense for the Knicks but Griffin will get the better matchup with Noah Vonleh and then Luke Kornet. Griffin has been playing as great as he has all season (at least from a fantasy production perspective) but is priced 1.3k lower than his peak. It’s hard enough to get exposure to power forward with a usage rate above 25% but to combine a projected 30% usage rate with a projected 39 minutes from Griffin is insane. The total on this game isn’t great but unless Blake pulls one of those zero rebound games, a ceiling game is a real possibility.
- Jaren Jackson: Jaren Jackson is one of the over-looked rookies from this draft that has actually been having a great first season for the Grizzlies. As you may know, if you’ve been following NBA DFS, the Timberwolves are a terrible defensive team when it comes to players in the paint, somewhere Jackson dominates. Jackson has shown big numbers when given the minutes and I’m willing to take a chance his minutes get a bump tonight with the need to match up with both Gibson and Towns inside. Jackson will likely go under 10% owned tonight and is a great leverage play if you’re looking to get off Ibaka/Gordon/Williams (chalkier options – also notable Kelly Olynyk is mega chalk tonight).
Top GPP Plays:
- Myles Turner: Myles Turner AND Domantas Sabonis have essentially the best matchup on the board for bigs. I’m willing to pay the premium for Turner where his minutes are much secure and his ceiling essentially the same as Sabonis. Turner has been known to crush in +EV matchups in the past and although he recently got listed questionable with a bruised right thigh, he should be good to go tonight. With Dipo out for the season, we’re going to continue to see Turner and some other players on this team take bigger roles in the offense. Turner is a guy who can score in a variety of ways and should be a lock for 10+ boards against a smaller Lakers frontcourt. If he’s out tonight just lock in Sabonis.
- Cody Zeller: I don’t think Zeller will have any sort of restriction on his minutes tonight given he was out with a hand injury. That being said, he’s a punt play at 4k at the center position if you’re looking to get weird. Statistically, this is the best matchup on the board for a starting center and while Zeller is not known for his ceiling, he had a 44 DK point game in his 3rd game before getting injured and followed that up with two games over 24 DK points. If he plays 22+ minutes tonight, given the matchup and the total on this game he should cruise to value. A double-double would be huge which is what I am banking on.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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