Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (2/6/19)
Fun 7 game slate tonight with some spots I really like (Nets). We’ll try to find some spots to expose in my article today. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate. You can access my CORE GPP Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!
AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!
The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.
Top GPP Plays:
- Zach LaVine: The total on this game is up there at 227 which is only ranked 4th on this slate which gives you a sense of what kind of DFS scores we’re going to see tonight. LaVine is priced just 6.6k for the Bulls who are actually favored at home in this game to beat the Pelicans in a tight spread (-2). LaVine has maintained his insane usage rate we saw before the Dunn injury and continues to play heavy minutes for the Bulls. LaVine has been contributing in a big way with the peripheral stats, even posting a 12 rebound game on January 27th. If LaVine can continue this contribution on the boards with the usage rate he’s got, his ceiling is 50+ DK point tonight. If the Bulls are going to win this game and score more than 114 points LaVine is a lock for value.
- D’Angelo Russell: The Nets are still without their 2nd and 3rd best players on the team in Caris LeVert and Spencer Dinwiddie, both of who are on the return. The Nets are surprisingly projected to keep this game very close (+3), even without so many players and facing one of the West’s best teams. Russell is going to need a huge game if this game is going to stay close and I can see Atkinson riding him out tonight for extended minutes in an attempt to cut this 3-game losing streak they’re on. Russell is priced at 8.1k which is extremely reasonable for the type of usage player he is with so many injuries to this team. He’s one of my top options tonight.
Top GPP Plays:
- Tim Hardaway Jr.: Keep a close status on THJ up to lock as he’s listed as questionable but projected for pretty significant minutes if he plays in this game. With both DSJ and Matthews gone, I imagine Hardaway soaks up a lot of their minutes/shots and turns into a type of hybrid option for the Mavericks. Hardaway got a price drop below 5k now and doesn’t really need to do a ton to hit value. The Mavericks/Hornets game is going to be one not many people are on given the totals in some other matchups and Hardaway provides some nice salary relief with a lot of upside if he can get his minutes tonight.
- Jordan McRae (punt): I remember when this guy was getting minutes for the Cavs and everyone talked about how insane he was and how great he was at scoring. Well, we haven’t heard much of him the last couple years but he looks to make another push in the NBA with the opportunities opening up on a ruined Wizards franchise with the extended injury of John Fall. McRae actually did go off in his last game scoring 20 points in just 25 minutes on the floor while contributing across all the peripheral statistic categories. For just 3.4k on Draftkings, I don’t mind taking a punt on him tonight. A 10x ceiling is realistic here.
Top GPP Plays:
- DeMarre Carroll: I really think nailing the Nets value on this slate where they’re projected for a lot of points and to keep the game close, where they have a ton of injuries and a tight rotation will be key to hitting big on this slate. While I do like Rodonis Kurucs as a punt play, he has been struggling big time over this losing streak for the Nets, and Carroll is clearly the better player. Carroll is likely working his way into more minutes for the Nets seeing consistently over 27 per game. Carroll is going to be a key contributor if the Nets are going to win this game. At 4.5k he isn’t going to hurt your lineups if you end up getting exposure.
- Buddy Hield: This is the highest total on the board and Hield has been on fire this season for the Kings, especially in the last month where he’s shooting over 50% from three-point land. In this game that most likely will turn into a shootout between Harden and Hield, Hield is a complete bargain on the other side at just 6.7k. Hield comes in as a great play on Fanduel (where he’s priced cheaper) and Draftkings (where the three-point bonus is nice). Hield has been extremely active on the boards as well of late which will only help increase his floor/upside in a game he could score 30+ real-life points.
Top GPP Plays:
- Marvin Bagley: Bagley is coming off the best game of his young career and may see some big minutes again tonight matched up with Kenneth Faried who he profiles pretty well against. It’ll be interesting to see how the Rockets try to defend both Willie Cauley-Stein and Bagley but if Bagley ends up getting moved onto PJ Tucker, I imagine he will dominate. Bagley has gone B2B games for over 30 minutes so I see no reason why we shouldn’t expect that tonight.
- Derrick Favors: Favors has shown his ability to provide a ceiling in limited minutes where he is averaging over 1.08 FP/min this season. Barring any sort of blowout here, which I never take into account when evaluating DFS players, Favors should be able to dominate a defensively weak frontcourt of the Suns. Even in 25-28 minutes tonight, Favors will feast against a defense that ranks dead last in the NBA in defensive rating (56.4) over the last ten games.
Top GPP Plays:
- Jarrett Allen: Jarrett Allen is a big name I’m targeting tonight and likely will be in 100% of my lineups. Allen is priced at just 5.1k on Draftkings and should be in line for HEAVY minutes tonight against a big Nuggets frontcourt that features Jokic and Millsap. The Nets just don’t have the size to match up with these guys without Allen on the court. Also notable, is that the Nuggets have been giving up a lot of fantasy points to centers of late (17th in the NBA over the last 15 games), whereas they had been ranked in the top 5 in the league earlier on in the season. Allen is one of my #LOCKS tonight with a massive ceiling.
Written By: Robert Viafora
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