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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (3/13/19)

Shorter six-game slate tonight with a national televised Nets vs Thunder game so I’m definitely going to need the good pieces from that game. My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.  I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Mike Conley:  Conley has been on fire of late averaging 1.31 FP/min the past month and gets a prime matchup against one of the worst backcourt defenders in the league in the Atlanta Hawks.  Conley is projected for a usage rate nearing 30% and around 35 minutes.  His past three games he’s averaging well over 45 DK points a game and is still priced below 8k.  There is no reason to expect that Conley won’t post another huge game tonight.
  2. Chris Paul: As AP highlighted earlier this week, Paul has been on a horrid stretch of shooting.  This is the type of volatile play in NBA DFS that causes a players price to fall when it really shouldn’t.  Chris Paul’s shooting is going to come back sooner rather than later and with the type of peripherals Paul has been putting up consistently, he should be a lock to exceed value when he does.  6.9k is a steal for Paul tonight against the Warriors without KD tonight.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Spencer Dinwiddie: You knew I was going to have some Nets players in this article and while DLO is a cash gameplay that you easily can include in GPP lineups, I also want to mention Dinwiddie who will be much lower owned.  Dinwiddie has had games where he takes over the scoring for the Nets and it really seems like these two never pop for huge games on the same night.  If you’re looking to hedge the Russell ownership, Dinwiddie provides pretty similair upside for much cheaper.  This should be a great game you’ll want pieces from.
  2. Avery Bradley: Bradley has been a new man from a fantasy perspective on this team.  He’s averaging upwards of .9 FP/min over the last couple weeks and really hasn’t seen too much of a price hike.  He’s a major piece of this Memphis team and gets one of my favorite matchups in NBA DFS.  A guy like Bradley priced 4.8k seeing over 35 minutes per game seems extremely safe while also providing an opportunity for a ceiling game given the fantastic matchup.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Josh Jackson:  I’m a Josh Jackson truther and I’m likely going to continue to ride him while he’s priced below 4k as his ceiling is just too great, even in limited minutes.  Last game his shooting volume was oddly low and he still managed to crush value.  Now expecting things return back to normal where he should see 2-3x more shot attempts tonight if we can get a little luck with the peripherals Jackson could easily hit 8-10x value.
  2. Terrance Ross: I’m not a huge Terrance Ross guy so it was tough to get him in here but outside of the chalk, SF is pretty weak today.  Ross has gone for over 6x in four of his last five games but includes a 5 point dud.  This is the type of volatility we should expect with Ross as he has high risk but great returns when he’s on.  Given the positive matchup and pace-up game, I love the pivot to Ross off some chalkier options.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Jonathan Isaac: Isaac is a monster at S/B production averaging 2.16 per game which is top four on this slate behind some big names like Paul George and Draymond Green.  This floor Isaac provides with his peripherals just raises his ceiling that much more.  A major pace up game against the Wizards in a matchup he should dominate has my mouth watering at getting exposure to Isaac tonight on both Fanduel and Draftkings.
  2. John Collins: We know what we’re getting with Collins.  Really the only way I believe he’ll let us down tonight is if he gets into foul trouble.  Collins is overpriced on FD but on DK he is a high-ceiling play coming in at pretty low ownership in a spot people are using to plug in Draymond Green or Paul George at.  I also like the Blake Griffin pivot if you have the extra $500 on the table as I think 8.1k is just way too cheap for Blake Griffin but Collins has a 50+ DK point ceiling that will be on display.  I’m not worried about the pace down game given the 223.5 over under which is surprisingly high for a Grizzlies game implying the Hawks will dictate the pace tonight.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Jarrett Allen: Jarrett Allen is another piece I love from this Nets/Thunder game.  Allen and Ed Davis should both be on the floor for a lot of this game to match up with the massive Steven Adams and the other Thunder bigs in Grant and Noel.  The minute projections on Allen are too low as I don’t see a situation where Allen plays under 30 minutes tonight and the Nets win this game. Atkinson knows this too and Allen should be a lock for a double-double tonight.  Absolute steal with a huge x ceiling at 4.7k on Draftkings.
  2. Clint Capela: Capela is someone I like paying up for and we really don’t have to break the bank to get him tonight at just 7.1k.  He’s only been playing better over the past five game stretch scoring more fantasy points in each consecutive game.  Let’s not forget about the time Capela broke the slate back in January where he went for over 60 Draftkings points against this same Warriors team.  The addition of DeMarcus Cousins to this defense only increases Capela’s ceiling.  The bold call is he exceeds 50 DK points tonight.  No one is going to have him with so many other centers on this slate you want.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

  1. Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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