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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (3/15/19)

Happy Friday everyone.  We had an OK day yesterday with the biggest miss on my part when constructing my core was moving ONTO LeBron James late.  Until his price comes down I don’t think I can consider him in NBA DFS the rest of the season as the Lakers are virtually out of the playoffs.  Today seems like a fairly non-chalky slate so looking forward to highlighting some of my top plays. 

My core continues to be on fire so make sure to check that out tonight by purchasing the NBA Core Plays package at dfskarma.com/shop and asking any questions you have in Discord tonight to fill out the rest of your lineup. Make sure as usual to leverage some of my TOP GPP options with a core of chalkier plays. Let’s get into my top GPP plays for this slate.

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays. This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned, and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.  I emphasize upside/leverage over ownership, particularly in NBA DFS.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Damian Lillard: Lillard is a priority in my lineups tonight and while these type of players will never be too low owned they make for fantastic GPP plays.  I always harp on it but in basketball, ownership levels matter the least and we look more at volatility/upside and of course price.  This is as good of a spot we could get for Lillard in a massive 234.5 over under game, pace up, against a weak defensive backcourt.  At 9k, Lillard feels like a lock for 5x where I fully expect him to surpass 50 draftkings points.  His recent price hike is going to scare people off him and I want to be overexposed.
  2. Austin Rivers (Pivot SZN off De’Anthony Melton): Melton is the chalk at PG today in the low tier but if you’re looking to differentiate and gain an edge over the field, Austin Rivers should get a bump in minutes and usage tonight with Chris Paul out.  These are the types of pivots that can really pay off when these two guys have almost exact projections but Rivers will be 1/2 owned as much as Melton.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Plays:

  1. James Harden: Harden may be up there as one of the most popular, if not the most popular play on the slate.  It doesn’t matter.  With Paul out he should be priced a full 2k more than he is.  He is an absolute lock in all formats where he will see close to a 40% usage rate on  the court and around 35 minutes of play.  As long as the Rockets don’t demolish the Suns, which I don’t believe will happen, Harden will post a massive score.
  2. JJ Reddick (Pivot off Eric Gordon): People will definitely be loading up on Rockets players with Paul out.  However, I’m more on the Harden, Rivers, Green side of thing vs. Gordon who also projects to be popular.  JJ Reddick projects for similair numbers while coming in at one third the ownership.  Reddick is a volatile player who makes for a fantastic play when he’s low-owned where he can post 8x+ games at this price.  A shootout with the Kings could be perfect for a big JJ Reddick game.

Small Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Gerald Green: Small forward is a bit of a sh*t show tonight and I’m likely going to be punting the position as I am priotirizing paying up elsewhere.  Green offers a pivot off of Gordon or Harden by getting exposure to the points that will be scored in this Rockets/Suns game.  Gerald Green is priced at 3.3k on Draftkings and should be seeing around 24-26 minutes tonight, an opportunity we’ve seen him capitalize in the past for some big games.  With his three point shooting really coming on strong this season I wouldn’t be surprised to see 10+ 3PA from Green tonight.
  2. Other options at small forward include: Mikal Bridges, Josh Jackson, and Jeremy Lamb – stay cheap here.

 

Power Forward

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Blake Griffin: Back to the well with Blake Griffin where his price continues to decrease, now at 7,700 on Draftkings.  Posting six consecutive games not hitting value will do that to a player but the type of upside we’re getting from Griffin who has been playing considerably less minutes of late due to blowouts is something people are missing. Griffin and the Pistons face another potential blowout tonight against the Lakers but I’m going to bank on the Lakers keeping this close in hopes of capitalizing on this way too cheap price point for Blake.
  2. Other options at the position include: Bobby Portis, Marvin Williams, and Al-Foruq Aminu.

Center

Top GPP Plays:

  1. Ivica Zubac: Due to me paying up at a lot of other positions the max I’m going to be able to afford here is probably in the range of Zubac to Ayton (chalk).  Zubac has an insane ceiling when playing limited minutes as I’m sure many of you are aware of after playing DFS this entire season. Zubac has exceed value in ten of his last eleven games and I don’t see his production slowing down where his minutes are only increasing and stablilizing in the mid 20’s range.  A couple hundred dollar increase to his price has not come close to hurting his ceiling.
  2. Other options at the position include: Joel Embiid, DeAndre Ayton, Jusuf Nurkic, and Andre Drummond.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora

  1. Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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