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Bobby’s NBA GPP Breakdown (10/24/18)

Big 11-game slate on our hands tonight.  This is going to be a crazy high-scoring night with a ton of games with 220+ over/unders.  These are one of these slates where I find myself playing more cash games as the winning GPP lineup is going to be an insanely high score but I will include some of those “spiked” players you should mix in with the chalkier plays in the industry tonight and who I think doesn’t have the ceiling in GPP’s to consider.  In addition, you can access my CORE-Plays by signing up for an NBA package at dfskarma.com!

AS NBA is a game where last-minute real-life changes are made before tipoff, always monitor breaking news up to last second!

The plays below in this daily article are low owned pivots and GPP plays.  This means that these players will be RELATIVELY low owned and ‘contrarian’ relative to the more highly owned, chalky plays of the night.

BALL IN!

Point Guard

Top GPP Play: D’Angelo Russell

Russell has been extremely inefficient in his first three games this season shooting around 33% from the field.  This is a number that is going to 180 in a big way as Russell is an extremely talented guard who was working hard this offseason to come out big.  Many considered him a frontrunner for most improved player award.  At 6.3k where he has been seeing over 30 MPG ( a rarity in the Kenny Atkinson offense), seeing over 25% usage per game Russell has a massive ceiling in this game at sub-5% ownership.

Fade: Zach LaVine

A ton of people are going to be chasing the LaVine big game from the other night and it is one of the biggest advantages in DFS to avoid recency bias.  The Bulls are actually very deep and LaVine is not going to continue this insane shooting efficiency.  At 7.4k against a tough Hornets team against the guard, I’m fine fading here.

Shooting Guard

Top GPP Play: Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi Leonard has been consistently mispriced this season and in my opinion is a 10k player given all that he brings to the table.  He has looked amazing for the Raptors, seeing 30+ minutes in every game while keeping an insane usage % in the mid-30s outside of the last game where they played in a blowout.  Leonard has a 60 fantasy point ceiling and is being overlooked consistently at the SG position on Draftkings.

Fade: DeMar DeRozan

Again people love chasing points and this is one of the easiest fades on the slate for me.  DeRozan is matched up against 1st team all defense Victor Oladipo and should have his work cut out for him in this game. He’s seen a huge $500 price bump since his huge game against the Lakers (including overtime) and does not have a huge ceiling at this price IMO given the matchup.

Small Forward

Top GPP Play: Kevin Durant

A huge narrative is at play here with Durant playing his hometown Wizards.  Not only that but we saw the price decrease we were looking for with Durant who is now priced 9.7k on Draftkings.  People will be scared off by the 10-point spread but that will be typical for the Warriors throughout the season and there will be times players like KD or Curry break slates.  I think Durant has the opportunity to do that tonight where his true ceiling is 70+ points as his team is implied for over 122 real life points.  This is going to be extremely high-scoring and I think KD drops a 40 bomb tonight (real-life points) in which he’d easily crush his price tag.

Fade: Cedi Osman

Osman is definitely extremely hyped up in the DFS community and I understand why but at nearly 6k I am not even considering him in any of my lineups on this 11-game slate.  Osman hit for 40 DK points in his first two games on insanely efficient shooting and fell back to Earth in his 3rd game going for 25 DK points while shooting at a realistic rate.  At 5.8k the ceiling just isn’t there for Osman where I project him for around 25 DK points.

Power Forward

Top GPP Play: Wendell Carter

Wendell Carter didn’t go bonkers in his last game as a pretty chalky option leading to a maintenance in price and him being a lower owned option on tonight’s slate.  Priced at only 4k in a fantastic matchup with the Hornets frontcourt I believe Carter has a big game.  We can expect 18-20% usage out of him where we’re banking on his eclipsing 30 minutes again.  Even if he sees slighlty less playing time (projected 26 minutes) he has a massive ceiling if he’s finishing around the rim (something he didn’t do two nights ago leading to his suppressed price).

Fade: Bobby Portis

One of my biggest mistakes Monday was being overexposed to Portis when I was also overweight on Carter.  In the exact same scenario tonight I’m not going to make the same mistake (unless Jabari Parker gets scratched, currently questionable).  We get Carter for 2.9k cheaper where we’re only sacrificing around 3-4 minutes of court time and around 3% in usage.  This is an easy fade for me where I want to have a ton of Carter.

Center

Top GPP Play: Marc Gasol

The Kings are one of the weakest teams in the NBA against guarding the center and Marc Gasol is severely underpriced on Draftkings at only 7.2k.  I would usually be concerned about the Kings/Grizzlies pace of play but Vegas is projecting over 220 points scored in this game.  It seems the NBA has done away from defense as we may never see a team implied for under 100 points again.  Just lock in Gasol at 7.2k at this price.  He won’t let you down (and this is huge leverage against Jaren Jackson if you’re fading him in some tournament teams).

Fade: Joel Embiid

Coming off an OT loss to the Pistons and then immediatley flying to Milwaukee I am not high on any 76ers in this game.  Embiid is one of the most taltened players in the game but is injury prone, over 10K on Draftkings, and in a pace down game against the Bucks who have been surprinsgly stingy in the frontcourt this year.  Kevin Durant outscoring Embiid is a mortal lock so I don’t understand paying up for Embiid in any format.

 

Written By: Robert Viafora
Twitter: @DF_Advantage

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