We’re coming off of a loss from the Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat game last night. Bam Adebayo hit, recording 9+ rebounds in the game. Jayson Tatum missed, though, as he barely scored in the first half. Ultimately, he ended with 22 points, which wasn’t enough to hit the over. We’re going to be sticking with basketball tonight, but we’re switching over to PrizePicks, who gave up a gift with their pricing on this slate. Below, you’ll find my favorite bet for the Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors game.
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2/2 Power Play – Dallas Mavericks vs Golden State Warriors
Luka Doncic over 32.5 points
Truthfully, I’m keeping this as simple as possible. PrizePicks is giving us odds on both of these players, and that’s exactly what I’m looking for.
Doncic’s been playing at an extremely high level throughout the series, although he hasn’t always beat this number. Through 4 games, he’s recorded 20, 42, 40, and 30 points against Golden State.
With that being said, he’s averaging 32.3 points per game against them in 8 contests throughout the entire season. He should continue to see 20+ shot attempts as the Mavs playoff life is on the line.
The biggest concern is Doncic being a better scorer at home, along with the rest of the Dallas offense being able to take pressure off of him in those games. They’ll be returning to Golden State tonight, although Doncic posted 42 points against them on the road earlier this season.
Doncic currently boasts -150 odds to go over 32.5 points on DraftKings sportsbook, and I’m always willing to grab those types of odds on these bets.
Stephen Curry over 25.5 points
Curry’s in a similar spot to Doncic. He’s recorded 20, 31, 32, and 21 points in his 4 games this series. He found the under in a pair of blowouts, though, while hitting the over in the only two games that were relatively close.
On the season, Curry is only averaging 23 points per game against Dallas, but the playoffs are a time when the best players on the floor perform well. The Warriors are returning home for Game 5, and this is a great opportunity for them to close out the series. If they lose, Game 6 returns to Dallas, potentially forcing a Game 7. The key here will be getting rest before the NBA Finals, as it looks like the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat could go to Game 7.
This is the exact type of game that we’ve seen Curry take over in, and I’m expecting the Mavs to stay at least somewhat competitive. If that’s the case, he should play big minutes with the ability to rest a few days before the Finals start.
The odds on DraftKings for Curry over 25.5 points currently sit at -165. We’re getting a bet that is being offered at +155 on DraftKings for +200 on PrizePicks. That’s great value over the long run.
Bet Luka Doncic over 32.5 points and Stephen Curry over 25.5 points to win 3x