Chicago Bulls (+190)/Dallas Mavericks (-235)
The Chicago Bulls and Dallas Mavericks haven’t been playing at the fastest pace this season, but that likely won’t matter in this game. These two teams have posted two of the worst defensive ratings in the NBA early this season, as they rank 26th and 30th in the league in defensive rating, respectively. Furthermore, Chicago ranks as an average offense, while Dallas ranks fourth in the NBA in offensive rating. The Bulls games are averaging 234.5 points per game, while the Mavericks games are averaging 248.5 points per game. While I’m not overly high on either offense for the entire season, neither team features a defense that can slow down their opponents. Dallas is also expected to get Harrison Barnes back tonight, who is one of their best offensive weapons. It’s difficult to trust such a high total, but this season has been full of offense with little defense early on.
Bet 3 units on the Chicago/Dallas OVER 229 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Utah Jazz (-595)
The Utah Jazz are a team that seemingly gets no respect in the NBA. They flashed tremendous offense against the Sacramento Kings before losing on a tip-in shot against the Golden State Warriors. They get a significantly easier matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, who are coming off of a big win against Atlanta Hawks. Atlanta features one of the worst teams in the NBA, and Memphis struggled against the Indiana Pacers in their game before that. While it hasn’t shown early this season, Utah features an elite defense, but they have added a tremendous offense through two games this season. JaMychal Green has already been ruled out for this game, while Kyle Anderson is questionable and Marc Gasol is probable. While Gasol is likely to play, it’s noteworthy that he’s dealing with an injury. The Jazz are a significantly more talented team than the Grizzlies, and this line suggests recency bias towards Memphis’ last game.
Bet 2 units on the Utah -10 spread to win 1.7 units (-115)
Indiana Pacers (+115)/Minnesota Timberwolves (-135)
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been a slow paced, defensive team under Tom Thibodeau, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They rank eighth in the NBA in pace, second in offensive rating, and 27th in defensive rating. While we’re only two games in, it’s noteworthy, especially in a matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who rank sixth in the NBA in offensive rating. This game is likely only set at 226.5 points because of the reputation of the Wolves. Jimmy Butler and Andrew Wiggins, who are combining for 48.3 points per game this season, are seemingly trying to make a statement after a drama-filled offseason. The Wolves have scored 130+ points in each of their first two games this season, and there’s very little reason to believe they will switch to a defensive team in this matchup. The Pacers also have an offensive that can keep this game competitive.
Bet 3 units on the Indiana/Minnesota OVER 226.5 to win 2.6 units (-115)
Parlay 2 units on Charlotte/Toronto OVER 225.5 points, New York +11 spread, Portland ML to win 8.93 (+447)