Indiana Pacers (-210)
The Indiana Pacers have found plenty of success in the NBA this season, ranking 10th in the league in net offensive and defensive rating (2.9). They get a matchup against the Miami Heat, who rank 15th in the NBA in net off and def rating (0.3) this season. Indiana also recently defeated Miami by eight points in Miami. While the Pacers have struggled at times at home this season, the Heat have a few terrible losses – Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks – on the road. Miami continues to deal with multiple injuries, while Indiana features a completely healthy team. Indiana owns the better team, regardless, and the fact that they will be playing at home against a team that has struggled to travel previously throughout the year, makes this spread a bit too close.
Bet 3 units on Indiana -5.5 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Miami Heat (+175)/Indiana Pacers (-210)
I’m going back to this game, but projecting the over in this situation. Both of these teams rank as above average offenses, although they both possess above average defenses. The Miami Heat have been pushing the pace this season, though, while the Indiana Pacers have been slowing it down. Overall, these two teams are combining to average 217.2 points per game this season. They only combined to total 212 points in their first matchup, but that is only slightly under the total in this game, and we saw a few low scores from key pieces to each of these offenses. It’s a bit surprising that this game features the second lowest total on the slate, and it’s something we can take advantage of at this point in the season.
Bet 3 units on Miami/Indiana OVER 213.5 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Sacramento Kings (+225)
The Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings have been two of the biggest surprises in the NBA this season. These two teams rank 13th and 17th in the NBA in net off and def rating, although the difference is only 1.8 points. The Kings are coming off of a big win against the San Antonio Spurs, but the Grizzlies have also caught fire recently, defeating the Bucks, 76ers, and Nuggets in three of their last four games. This game is the battle of opposites, though, as Sacramento is a fast paced team that focuses on offense, while Memphis is the slowest paced team in the NBA, who feature a dominant defense. While I don’t believe the Kings should be favorites in this game, this line is entirely too wide to ignore.
Bet 2 units on Sacramento ML to win 4.5 units (+225)
Parlay 2 units on New York/New Orleans UNDER 227, Sacramento +6.5 spread, Milwaukee -15 spread to win 12 units (+600)