Charlotte Hornets (-125)
This line is one of the oddest on the slate, considering the Charlotte Hornets will have a healthy roster at home. Through 21 games, they rank seventh in the NBA in net offensive and defensive rating (4.6). They have been significantly better in Charlotte, where they own an 8-3 record, while recording a league-high 10.6 net off and def rating. They get a matchup against the Utah Jazz, who have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NBA this season. They currently rank 23rd in the league in net off and def rating (-3.0), although they have been a better team on the road this season. They’ll be in their second game of an East road trip, and this will be the most difficult matchup of those trio of games. Charlotte seemingly gets very little credit for being one of the best teams in the NBA at home this season, and it’s difficult to believe Utah’s offense will be able to keep up with them tonight.
Bet 3 units on Charlotte -2 spread to win 2.6 units (-115)
Cleveland Cavaliers (+705)/Boston Celtics (-1010)
I’ve hit on two consecutive unders for the Cleveland Cavaliers, and now Vegas has dropped this total by nearly 10 points (compared to those two games). I still feel we can take advantage of this total, though, as Cleveland and the Boston Celtics currently rank 28th and 22nd in the NBA in pace. These two teams have also struggled to score this season, ranking 24th and 25th in the league in offensive rating. Boston also features the second best defense in the NBA, while Cleveland ranks last. Their ability to slow down the pace against an inefficient offense will make up for their defensive mistakes, though. The total in this game is extremely low, which is a major concern, but Cleveland has failed to total 200 points in either of their last two games against tough defense, and I expect similar results in this matchup.
Bet 2 units on Cleveland/Boston UNDER 207.5 to win 1.8 units (-110)
Detroit Pistons (-530)
The Detroit Pistons have been an above average team this season, ranking 14th in the NBA in net off and def rating (1.0). They get an elite matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who currently rank 28th in the league in net off and def rating (-8.9). Detroit has found plenty of success at home, sporting a 7-3 record. The same cannot be said for Chicago, who feature a 2-8 record on the road. More importantly, the Bulls feature a -11.6 net off and def rating through 10 road games. These two teams played earlier this season in Chicago with the Pistons taking the victory by only two points. I expect this game to go a bit differently with it being held in Detroit. For a fun bit of information that has virtually nothing to do with this bet, Detroit is 2-0, averaging 120.0 points per game on Fridays, while Chicago is 0-4, averaging only 102.8 points per game on Fridays.
Bet 3 units on Detroit -9 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on Philadelphia -6.5 spread, Chicago/Detroit OVER 218, and New Orleans -4 spread to win 12 units (+600)