Washington Wizards (-150)
The Washington Wizards have surprisingly featured one of the worst teams in the NBA this season, ranking 28th in net offensive and defensive rating (-10.1). That has gotten only slightly better with Dwight Howard on the court, as it has dropped to -9.7 in three games, although one of those games was a 23 point loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. I feel we have yet to see the best of the Wizards team, although the same cannot be said for the Orlando Magic. They rank 27th in the NBA in net off and def rating (-8.5), and it seems unlikely that it will improve as the season moves on. This may be a bet solely on positive regression I’m expecting for Washington, as I simply feel their record does not represent their talent.
Bet 3 units on Washington -3.5 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Detroit Pistons (-210)
The Detroit Pistons have a special place in my heart, as we have hit on their games on multiple occasions early this season. They only rank 20th in the NBA in net off and def rating (-1.8), although they have recently played a tough string of games against the Boston Celtics (2), Philadelphia 76ers, and Miami Heat. They get a second easy matchup in a row, facing off against the Atlanta Hawks tonight after beating the Orlando Magic in their last game. Atlanta currently ranks 26th i the league in net off and def rating (-8.0), and they simply do not have anyone that will be able to slow down Andre Drummond. He has been on a tear recently, recording 20+ points and 19+ rebounds in three of his last four games. The Pistons rebounding should limit the Hawks second chance opportunities, while giving Detroit a few of their own. My only true concern is Detroit’s lack of ability to blowout their opponents.
Bet 3 units on Detroit -5.5 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Minnesota Timberwolves (-165)/Sacramento Kings (+140)
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Sacramento Kings are two teams that have been playing at above average paces this season. Early on, Sacramento ranks second in the NBA in pace, while Minnesota ranks 11th. Both teams also rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA in defensive rating this season. Furthermore, Minnesota ranks as an average offense, while Sacramento has been a bit above average. These two teams are combining to score 228.1 points on a nightly basis, while also giving up a combined 236.2 points. They both focus heavily around offense without much defense. There’s very little reason to believe that will change in this matchup.
Bet 2 units on Minnesota/Sacramento OVER 230.5 to win 1. units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on Wizards ML, Detroit ML, and Denver ML to win 3.8 units (+189)