Memphis Grizzlies (-150)
The over/under tells quite a bit about this matchup. The Portland Blazers feature a high end offense, while the Memphis Grizzlies feature an elite defense. The Blazers have the advantage in an offensive battle, while the Grizzlies will own the advantage in a defensive matchup. Vegas seems to believe the latter is more likely to happen, as do I. Memphis has found more success at home this season, where they own an 8-4 record with a +3.3 point differential per game. Portland, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, posting a 5-8 record with a -5.9 point differential per game. In their 15 wins, Memphis has held their opponents to only 99.6 points per game, and the total of this game projects something very similar. This game will turn into which team can utilize their style of play to take the advantage, and Portland’s inability at times to score on the road should make the difference.
Bet 3 units on Memphis -3 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
Miami Heat (+245)/Utah Jazz (-305)
This is seemingly a perfect storm for the over in a surprisingly low total. The Utah Jazz have struggled quite a bit at home this season, and their games are averaging 221.6 points per game at home. This is significantly higher than their average of 211.4 points per game on the road. The Miami Heat are the exact opposite, as their home games are averaging only 213.3 points per game, while their road games are totaling an average of 220.5 points per game. Miami will also be looking to push the pace in this game, as they rank 10th in the NBA in pace thus far. The same can’t be said for Utah, but they have been in a plethora of shootouts throughout the season. Both teams feature above average defenses on the season, but that simply hasn’t been the case in this particular situation. This total is entirely too low, and makes my favorite bet on the slate.
Bet 3 units on Miami/Utah OVER 211.5 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Charlotte Hornets (-220)
The Charlotte Hornets have struggled a bit this season, but the majority of their struggles have come on the road. They have been a significantly better team at home, where they own a 9-5 record. Charlotte also features a +7.5 point differential per game, as opposed to a -1.5 point differential per game on the road. They get a matchup against the Detroit Pistons, who have been at their worst when they are on the road. Through 10 road games, they own a 4-6 record with a -2.7 point differential per game. The Pistons have also struggled quite a bit in December, where they feature a 1-5 record. The spread is getting a bit wide, but Charlotte features the significantly better team at this moment, especially when they get the home court advantage.
Bet 2 units on Charlotte -5.5 spread to win 1.8 units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on New York -1 spread, Oklahoma City/New Orleans OVER 234.5, and Atlanta/Dallas OVER 225 to win 12 units (+600)