Dallas Mavericks (-120)
The Dallas Mavericks are a night and day team at home and on the road. Through 11 home games, they feature a 9-2 record, while recording a +8.6 point differential. Their only home losses this season have come to the Utah Jazz and New York Knicks, and they have now won seven consecutive games in Dallas. The Portland Blazers splits haven’t been nearly as emphasized, but they have been a significantly more vulnerable team on the road. They own a 5-6 record with a -5.5 point differential through 11 road games this season. The Blazers have lost each of their last three road games, although they have played high level competition in each game. The obvious concern for Dallas tonight is the status of Dennis Smith Jr. and Luka Doncic. DSJ looks like a true game-time decision, while Doncic is expected to play, and that’s enough to lean towards Dallas. If you lose a small amount of odds here and bet the moneyline, that’s also fine.
Bet 3 units on Dallas -1.5 spread to win 2.7 units (-110)
San Antonio Spurs (+290)/Utah Jazz (-360)
This is an extremely interesting line. If you trust the moneyline, you have to believe this game with hit the under without any issues. The Utah Jazz flashed offense early this season, but their defense is what has generally won them games. Through 11 wins, Utah is allowing only 102.4 points per game, as opposed to 112.7 points per game in losses. Furthermore, the San Antonio Spurs are averaging only 105.0 points per game in their 12 losses, as opposed to 114.3 points per game in their 11 wins. The Jazz have also been playing at a slower pace recently, as their games averaged 174.0 field goal attempts (FGA) in October, and only 166.6 FGA in November. This has caused the total points in their games to drop from 223.6 to 210.1 in those months, respectively. As mentioned above, Utah’s defense will be the key to victory in this game, and we can predict the total based on the sizeable advantage in the spread.
Bet 3 units on San Antonio/Utah UNDER 215 to win 2.7 units (-110)
Parlay 2 units on Chicago/Indiana OVER 210, Dallas ML, and Sacramento/Phoenix UNDER 223 to win 11.4 units (+568)