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NBA DFS 1/5/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Philadelphia 76ers

The Philadelphia 76ers have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking seventh in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, who currently rank 11th in the league in pace in 2018. Philadelphia also ranks 11th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Dallas ranks 13th in the league in defensive rating. With that being said, the Sixers are -7 point favorites in a game set at 227 points. They own an implied total of 117 points tonight.

This stack relies on Jimmy Butler and Wilson Chandler, who are currently questionable, sitting out tonight. Jonah Bolden drew the start for Chandler in their last game, but only saw 16 minutes because of a combination of foul troubles and the Phoenix Suns running a small ball lineup. This is a better matchup for Bolden, who is averaging 3.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks (10.4 DK points) in only 11.3 minutes per game in Philadelphia this season. He’s expected to see minutes in the mid-20s tonight, and he has scored 19 and 23.25 DK points in his last two games with 25+ minutes. T.J. McConnell continues to make a great cash option because of his recent consistency and his low price tag. He has scored 20+ DK points in each of his last six games, and he’s averaging 23.3 DK points per game over that span. He’s playing minutes in the mid- to high-20s on a nightly basis, and that will be the case again tonight. He’ll also see a slight boost if Butler isn’t able to suit up tonight. Regardless, he’s a cheap source of consistency on somewhat of a medium sized slate. If Butler is out again, Joel Embiid is a player that gains quite a bit of value. He has been playing at an extremely high level recently, averaging 31.0 points, 17.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 3.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals (67.7 DK points) in 34.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Embiid has also scored 60+ DK points in each of his last four games, including a 77.5 DK point performance against the Suns. Embiid is still a bit too cheap, and he’s an easy player to afford with Bolden and McConnell already in this stack.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors and Sacramento Kings are two teams that have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season. These two teams currently rank 10th and second in the NBA in pace, respectively. Golden State also ranks second in the NBA in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks only 23rd in the league in defensive rating. The Warriors are currently -7.5 point favorites in a game set at 238.5 points, giving them the highest implied total on the slate at 123 points.

Stephen Curry has featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2018 season, and he’s averaging 27.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.2 steals (46.4 DK points) in 37.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also scored 49+ DK points in four of his last six games. In his only matchup against Sacramento this season, Curry posted 35 points with seven rebounds, six assists, and three steals (60.75 DK points) in 36 minutes. This is the type of fast paced, high scoring matchup Curry tends to thrive in, as well. Kevin Durant has struggled quite a bit recently, but he has flashed 60+ DK point performance multiple times over his last 10 games. Durant has faced off against the Kings twice this season, and he’s averaging 38.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists, and 1.0 block (64.4 DK points) in 38.2 minutes per game against them. Similarly to Curry, Durant will benefit quite a bit from this matchup, and they have proven that they can both post dominant fantasy performances on the same night. I’m expecting Curry and Durant to take over the scoring in this game, leaving Draymond Green as the most obvious option to fill out the stack. He’s averaging 7.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.6 steals (31.7 DK points) in 33.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has flashed triple double potential, and he should see plenty of opportunities for peripheral stats in this game. This stack isn’t going to come cheap, but there may not be a trio of players that come with as much upside as these three.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Sacramento Kings

This game has been outlined a bit above, and it will feature one of the fastest paces on the entire slate. While they have struggled a bit defensively this season, the Sacramento Kings also rank 15th in the NBA in offensive rating. Their opponent, the Golden State Warriors, rank 16th in the league in defensive rating this season. The Kings are +7.5 point underdogs in a game set at 238.5 points, but they still feature an implied total of 115.5 points on this slate.

Buddy Hield had a string of poor performances, but that has dropped his price tag a bit. He was consistently scoring 35+ DK points per game before that streak, and he has scored 42.75 and 38.5 DK points in his two games since. Hield has the potential to add a few peripheral stats on a nightly basis, but he’s a player that is extremely dependent on scoring. He has scored 20+ points in eight of his last 10 games, though, and this is an elite matchup for a scorer. Hield should take 20+ shot attempts tonight, which would be on par with his performances against Golden State earlier this season. In those two games, he’s averaging a healthy 40.9 DK points per game. De’Aaron Fox is another young player for Sacramento, who has been playing at a high level recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 17.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 2.0 steals (38.7 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game. He’s coming off of two down games, but he had scored 40+ DK points in each of his six games prior to that. In those six games, Fox averaged 47.0 DK points per game. He’s also averaging a 17.0/4.0/9.0/0.5/1.0 line (37 DK points) in 34.2 minutes per game against Golden State this season. Bogdan Bogdanovic has quietly been playing well, averaging 18.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.2 steals (30.5 DK points) in 30.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has shown a relatively low floor for his price tag, but he also owns 40+ DK point upside, especially in this type of matchup. Similarly to Hield, Bogdanovic relies heavily on scoring, and the pace of this game should help him quite a bit. For what it’s worth, Willie Cauley-Stein and Nemanja Bjelica can also be considered in this stack, but using all five would be far too risky for my liking.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Alec Burks

Burks has performed well since joining the Cleveland Cavaliers, averaging 11.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 28.7 minutes per game. He has also been playing well over the last 10 days, where he’s averaging 25.3 DK points per game. Burks has scored 25+ DK points in three of his last four games, including two contests with 30+ DK points. More importantly, he has played 27+ minutes in each of his last seven games.

Burks is expected to see minutes in the high-20s once again tonight for Cleveland. He gets an elite matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who have struggled against guards this season, as well. Burks was able to score 15 DK points in only 14.5 minutes in his only matchup against New Orleans this season, and he makes a great per minute option in this matchup. Burks can be used in all leagues until his price tag jumps a bit higher.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan has been enjoying a solid season, averaging 11.0 points, 14.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.1 blocks (35.1 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game. He has been an inconsistent option recently, but he has scored 40+ DK points in five of his last nine games, including a 55.25 DK point performance against the Golden State Warriors.

Jordan gets a tough matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, but I’m not entirely sure that matters at his price tag. He’ll be locked into 30+ minutes tonight, and he makes a decent bet for 40+ DK points. Regardless of the safety involved in this play, Jordan is entirely too cheap for his potential, making him an option that can be considered in all leagues, even if his style is better suited for tournaments.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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