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NBA DFS 1/7/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Sacramento Kings

The Sacramento Kings have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season, ranking second in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the Orlando Magic, who only rank 27th in the league in pace this season. Sacramento also ranks 14th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Orlando ranks in the same position in defensive rating in 2018. The Kings are currently -5.5 point favorites in a game set at 221.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 113.5 points.

The Kings players are entirely too cheap on DraftKings tonight, although they can also be considered on FanDuel. Bogdan Bogdanovic has caught fire recently, averaging 18.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.8 steals (34.4 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 25+ DK points in six of his last seven games, including four games with 35+ DK points and two games with 40+ DK points. He has also been a better option at home this season, where he’s averaging 1.02 DK points per minute this season. Willie Cauley-Stein also comes with a surprisingly low price tag, as he’s averaging 12.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (33.8 DK points) in 32.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 25+ DK points in eight of his last nine games, including a 55.25 DK point performance against the New Orleans Pelicans. Cauley-Stein also scored 32.25 DK points in 29.5 minutes in his only matchup against Orlando this season. De’Aaron Fox is the other Kings player that will likely feature ownership tonight. He has struggled in a pair of games recently, but he’s still averaging 15.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 7.2 assists, and 2.0 steals (34.4 DK points) in 33.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Still, Fox had scored 40+ DK points in six consecutive games prior to his recent three game skid. He also flashed 60 DK point upside over that span. Nemanja Bjelica and Buddy Hield are two more Kings players, who can be considered in this stack, as well.

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers have both been playing at an above average pace this season, ranking 11th and third in the NBA in pace in 2018. Dallas has struggled a bit offensively, ranking 18th in the NBA in offensive rating. Los Angeles has found surprising defensive success in 2018, ranking eighth in the league in defensive rating. With that being said, the Lakers are dealing with injuries, and the Mavs are -8 point favorites in a game set at 222.5 points. They own one of the higher implied totals on the slate at 115.3 points tonight.

Harrison Barnes and DeAndre Jordan are the two obvious options for Dallas tonight. They’re both underpriced on both sites, and they’ll likely feature quite a bit of ownership on this slate. Barnes has scored 24+ DK points in eight of his last nine games, including four games with 30+ DK points. He’s also averaging 17.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.0 steal (28.1 DK points) in 31.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Barnes is averaging a healthy 35.6 DK points per game in two matchups against the Lakers this season. Jordan has struggled a bit recently, averaging 8.5 points, 13.0 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.5 blocks (30.8 DK points) in 29.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, he has scored 40+ DK points in five of his last 10 games, including a 55.25 DK point performance against the Golden State Warriors. Jordan has struggled against Los Angeles through two matchups this season, but his price tag simply doesn’t match his potential upside. Luka Doncic makes a great option, but I’m siding with the price tag of Dennis Smith Jr. for this stack. Smith has struggled over the last 10 days, averaging 11.2 points, 1.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.3 steals (20.9 DK points) in 25.3 minutes per game over that span. He recently scored 35 DK point against the Charlotte Hornets, though, and he comes with similar upside in this matchup. He’s expected to play minutes in the mid- to high-20s, and he’s a risky tournament option for this stack.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets have been slowing the pace down throughout the season. These two teams currently rank 20th and 22nd in the NBA in pace, respectively. Boston ranks 10th in the NBA in offensive rating, though, while Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the league in defensive rating. The Celtics are -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 220.5 points, giving them an implied total of 115.5 points.

Kyrie Irving has been the leader of the Boston offense this season, and he’s averaging 21.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, 10.7 assists, and 1.3 steals (46.1 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has been playing at a high level for significantly longer than that, though, as he’s averaging 48.6 DK points per game over his last 10 games. Furthermore, Irving has been a better option at home, where he’s averaging 1.44 DK points per minute, as opposed to 1.3 DK points per minute on the road. Marcus Morris is an interesting option, as his ownership will likely be lowered by his surprisingly high price tag. He’s averaging 17.8 points and 4.3 rebounds (27.7 DK points) in 28.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 30+ DK points in five of his last 10 games, though, including two games with 40+ DK points. Brooklyn has struggled against big men this season, and Morris comes with quite a bit of upside in this matchup. Al Horford is a cheaper option, who may go a bit overlooked tonight. He has been playing well, averaging 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.4 assists (29.7 DK points) in only 24.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 30+ DK points in three of his last four games, even though he played 25 or fewer minutes in each of those games. Horford has been a better option at home this season, as well, averaging 1.14 DK points per minute at home, as opposed to 0.98 DK points per minute on the road. This stack comes with quite a bit of risk, but Boston features plenty of upside in this matchup, and they will come with low ownership, as well.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Shabazz Napier

Napier has seen his role increase recently, playing 23+ minutes in each of his last four games. Over that span, he’s averaging 18.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists (29.9 DK points) in 26.8 minutes per game. He scored 51 DK points against the Milwaukee Bucks, and Napier still comes with an absurdly low price tag.

He is expected to play minutes in the mid-20s once again tonight, and Napier has proven he can easily exceed value at his current price tag in those minutes. He gets a decent matchup against the Boston Celtics, who rank as an average defense against point guards this season. Napier is going to feature a plethora of ownership tonight, and he should be considered in all leagues.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Nemanja Bjelica

Bjelica has seen his role increase recently, and he has taken advantage of that. He’s averaging 13.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 2.6 assists (31.2 DK points) in 30.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has also scored 30+ DK points in five of his last six games, while he posted 39 DK points in his only matchup against the Orlando Magic this season.

As mentioned above, Bjelica gets a matchup against the Magic, who have struggled against forwards this season. His minutes could drop a bit to the high-20s with Marvin Bagley expected to return. With that being said, Bagley isn’t expected to play full minutes, leaving Bjelica to see plenty of time on the court. He still comes with far too low of a price tag, and he’s a safe option, even with lowered minutes.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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