Easy Breezy: Favorite Stack
The Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets have been playing at surprisingly low paces this season. In 2018, these two teams rank 26th and 28th in the NBA in pace, respectively. With that being said, Denver also ranks eighth in the NBA in offensive rating, while Houston ranks only 20th in defensive rating. The Nuggets are -4 point favorites in a game set at 214 points tonight, and they feature an implied total of 109 points.
Jamal Murray has been a leader for Denver this season, recording a team-high 33.7 minutes per game. He has also posted a 24.1% usage rating, turning that into 18.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. He has also scored as many as 60.25 DK points within his last four games. Monte Morris has found plenty of success in limited minutes this season, although he only possesses a 16.6% usage rating. Morris has also caught fire over his last pair of games, totaling 54.25 DK points in 50 minutes. He also comes with an absurdly low price tag for his combination of consistency and upside. The remainder of the Nuggets team can be considered, but Nikola Jokic needs to be mentioned. He has posted elite numbers at home, where he’s averaging 19.5 points, 11.3 rebounds, 8.3 assists, and 1.0 steal (50.3 DK points) in 29.2 minutes per game. For comparison, Jokic is averaging only 38.1 DK points in 29.3 minutes per game on the road. Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, Trey Lyles, Juan Hernangomez, and Malik Beasley can all be considered because of only three games on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
I have outlined Morris above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. He’s coming off of two strong games, and is averaging 0.88 DK points per minute this season. He’s expected to see 20+ minutes once again tonight in a plus matchup against the Houston Rockets. While Morris does come with some risk, this is a small slate and we need to find value wherever we can.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Similarly to his entire career, Hernangomez has found success in limited minutes this season. In 2018, he’s averaging 19.2 points, 13.1 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.6 blocks on a per-36 minutes basis. Overall, he’s averaging 1.26 DK points per minute this season, although he has only been playing 14.5 minutes per game.
Hernangomez has seen a bit of an increase in playing time recently, as he has seen 20 minutes in two of his last four games. He has also scored 25+ DK points in three of those games. Overall, he’s averaging 10.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1.5 blocks (24.3 DK points) in 17.2 minutes. Hernangomez is a near lock for his current price tag on the three game slate.
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