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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets and Minnesota Wolves have both been playing at ridiculous paces this season. They rank fourth and second in the NBA in pace, respectively. Houston also ranks fifth in the league in offensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 16th in defensive rating. The Rockets are +1.5 point underdogs in a game set at 231.5 points, but they still feature an implied team total of 115 points.
Russell Westbrook has been ruled out, making James Harden that much better of an option. Over the last 10 days, Harden is averaging 41.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 8.6 assists, and 2.8 steals (70.8 DK points) in 38.5 minutes per game. He has scored 60+ DK points in each of his last 6 games, including 70+ DK points in 5 of those games. Harden’s usage rating is expected to sit north of 40% on this slate, and there’s very little reason to believe he won’t easily exceed value once again tonight.
Ben McLemore will also see extended minutes with Danuel House, Eric Gordon, and Clint Capela all ruled out tonight. McLemore is only averaging 0.62 DK points per minute on the season, but he’ll see a larger role in the offense tonight. In his last game, McLemore scored 21 points with 3 rebounds (26.25 DK points) in 33 minutes. Most importantly, he took 11 three-point attempts in that game, flashing tremendous upside for a low price tag. In his only other game with 30+ minutes, McLemore scored 19.5 DK points. That’s far from an elite game, but still hit value for his current price tag.
P.J. Tucker is another player that will be forced into big minutes. He played 40 minutes in his last game, scoring 5 points with 12 rebounds, 1 block, and 2 steals. Tucker will see more rebounding opportunities with Capela injured, as well. While Tucker hasn’t been overly consistent this season, he recently scored 45.75 DK points in 38 minutes against the Golden State Warriors. Tucker makes an outstanding option for his current price tag.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Miami Heat
The Miami Heat enter this game ranked 13th in the NBA in pace. They’re in a pace up spot, as the New Orleans Pelicans rank third in the league in pace. Miami only ranks 16th in the league in offensive rating, while New Orleans ranks 29th in defensive rating. The Heat are -7 point favorites in a game set at 227.5 points, and they boast the highest implied team total on thee slate at 117.3 points.
Goran Dragic hasn’t been locked into major minutes recently. Still, he’s averaging 16.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists (31.3 DK points) in 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He’s coming off of a tough game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but had scored 30+ DK points in each of his three games prior. Dragic is a cheaper option, who comes with tremendous upside, as well.
Kendrick Nunn is entrenched as a starter for Miami. He has played 37 minutes in each of his last 2 games. In those games, he’s averaging 21.5 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 2.0 steals (40.5 DK points) per game. Nunn is an elite scorer, who will benefit from the pace and extra opportunities in this game. Similarly to Dragic, he’s too cheap for his upside, but isn’t the most consistent option on the slate.
Jimmy Butler is in the same situation as Dragic and Nunn. He’s averaging 21.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 1.8 steals (40.1 DK points) in 35.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has recently scored 48.75 and 46.75 DK points against the Detroit Pistons and Phoenix Suns. He isn’t consistent enough to be considered in cash games, but this stack is an elite option in tournaments on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs and Portland Blazers will play at a slightly above average pace, as these two teams rank 15th and 10th in the NBA in pace, respectively. San Antonio currently ranks seventh in the league in offensive rating. Portland, on the other hand, ranks 19th in the NBA in defensive rating this season. The Spurs are -1 point favorites in a game set at 226.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 113.8 points tonight.
Derrick White has seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season, but he’s averaging a 0.86 DK points per minute this season. Overall, he’s averaging 10.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.5 assists (20.2 DK points) in 23.3 minutes per game. He’ll see extended minutes tonight with Dejounte Murray sitting out for rest. White has played well in extended minutes, and he’s a bit too cheap for the upside he possesses.
DeMar DeRozan is an inconsistent option because of his fascination with mid-range jumpers. He’s averaging 20.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.5 assists, and 1.0 steal (35.8 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He recently flashed upside, though, scoring 44.25 DK points in 33 minutes against the Minnesota Wolves. He’ll see a larger role in the offense with Murray out, as well.
LaMarcus Aldridge is the final part of this stack. He gets a game against his former team with a pace that he tends to be at his best in. He’s struggled with DeRozan this season, but has also flashed tremendous upside. He recently scored 57 DK points against the Oklahoma City Thunder. While that may not be the most likely outcome, Aldridge is still cheap, and posted 39.75 DK points in his only game against Portland this season.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Chris Clemons
Clemons has seen limited action in 2019. He saw 22 minutes in his NBA debut, scoring 16 points with 3 rebounds, 1 assist, and 1 block (24.25 DK points). Clemons was an elite scorer at Campbell in college. As a senior, he averaged 30.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.5 steals in 36.6 minutes per game.
Clemons gets a matchup against the Minnesota Wolves, which has been outlined above. Russell Westbrook is resting tonight, while Clint Capela has been ruled out. The Houston Rockets are likely to play small ball, which could open up minutes for Clemons. While nothing is guaranteed, he’s currently expected to play roughly 20 minutes tonight. He’s a solid salary relief option, although he may be best suited for tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Brandon Ingram
Ingram isn’t as cheap as my usual plays here, but he’s a clear value at his price tag. On the season, he’s averaging 25.9 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists (44.3 DK points) in 32.1 minutes per game. Excluding his 13 minute game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Ingram has scored 35+ DK points in each of his last 9 games. He has scored 40+ DK points in each of his last 3 games, including a 56.25 DK point performance against the Brooklyn Nets.
Ingram gets a plus matchup against the Miami Heat in a game that has been outlined a bit above. Ingram is expected to return from injury tonight. He’s also expected to play roughly 30-35 minutes in this game. His price tag has dropped $1,100 since his last game, and he’s a near must start on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
