Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Utah Jazz have been playing at a surprisingly fast pace this season, ranking 13th in the NBA in pace through seven games. They get a matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, who only rank 29th in the league in pace this season. Utah also ranks 13th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Memphis ranks third in defensive rating. They’re -7.5 point favorites in a game set at only 204.5 points, and they feature an implied total of 106 points tonight.
Donovan Mitchell and Alec Burks have been ruled out tonight, leaving a lot of usage and minutes for other players. Dante Exum should feature the highest ownership of the Utah players tonight. He’s averaging 0.92 DK points per minute this season, and he’s expected to see minutes in the mid-20s. He saw extended playing time against the Minnesota Wolves, scoring 26 DK points in 25 minutes. Ricky Rubio is also expected to see a spike in usage with a small bump in minutes tonight. He saw an extended role in the Utah offense against the New Orleans Pelicans earlier this season, scoring 28 points with six rebounds, 12 assists, and one steal in 30 minutes. With the uptick in usage rating, Rubio is a strong candidate for a double double, as he’s an elite passer in the NBA. Royce O’Neale will also see ownership tonight, but I’m adding Rudy Gobert to finalize this stack. He’s still surprisingly cheap, but he has scored 40+ DK points in five of his seven games this season. He is also averaging 23.3 points, 14.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 3.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals (53.9 DK points) in 32.7 minutes per game. He should continue to see double digit shot attempts tonight, making him a safe option for a reasonable price tag.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves have both been playing at an above average pace this season, ranking 10th and 11th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Golden State also leads the league in offensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 26th in the NBA in defensive rating. It’s an elite matchup for Golden State, and they are -11 point favorites in a game set at 241 points. They feature the highest implied total on the slate at 126 points.
Stephen Curry can no longer be had at a discount, but it’s impossible to ignore his upside. He leads the team with a 31.0% usage rating, and he’s averaging 33.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 1.2 steals in 33.6 minutes per game. Curry has also scored 58+ DK points in three of his nine games this season. Kevin Durant is the other focal point of the offense, sporting a 30.4% usage rating on the season. He has been a bit riskier than Curry this season, but he also comes with tremendous upside. He has scored 60+ DK points twice this season, while averaging 27.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists, and 1.0 steal in 35.2 minutes per game. This game should feature enough scoring to support both Curry and Durant. The final part of the stack is Draymond Green, who doesn’t rely as heavily on scoring. He struggled early in the season, but has been playing at a higher level over his last four games. Over that span, Green is averaging 11.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 1.0 block, and 2.3 blocks in 31.8 minutes per game. He has also flashed triple double potential for the first time this season in his last two games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Dallas Mavericks have been speeding up the pace, ranking 12th in the NBA in pace this season. They get a matchup against the New York Knicks, who have slowed the pace down a bit, ranking only 22nd in the league in pace. Dallas ranks as a slightly below average offense this season, while New York ranks as a below average defense. The Mavericks are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 217 points, giving them an implied total of 111.8 points.
Harrison Barnes recently returned from injury, and he has seen a 23.2% usage rating through four games. He has struggled at times, but is still averaging 14.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.0 steal in 31.1 minutes per game. Barnes is a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but he makes a great option on DraftKings. Luka Doncic is a player that is seemingly going overlooked, but he comes with tremendous upside on a nightly basis. He’s a versatile player, who is averaging 19.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.4 assists in 34.5 minutes per game. He also features one of the highest usage rating on the team at 24.9%. Doncic also scored 50 DK points only two games ago, flashing tremendous upside for his current price tag. DeAndre Jordan is coming off a terrible game against the Los Angeles Lakers, which could keep his ownership low tonight. He’s nearly locked for a double double on a nightly basis, adding to his value on DraftKings. Overall, he’s averaging 13.8 points, 14.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.6 blocks in 33.6 minutes per game. Jordan has also scored 50+ DK points twice this season. The Mavericks will go overlooked tonight, but they come with tremendous upside on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
I outlined Exum above, so I won’t go into too much detail here. Exum will see a major bump in minutes with Mitchell and Burks already ruled out tonight. Exum has been a great per minute fantasy player, and that’s unlikely to change tonight. He’s near the minimum price on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s the best player on the slate. Exum can safely be used in all leagues, but he shouldn’t be considered a punt.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Carter started the season off slow, average only 19.0 DK points in 23.6 minutes per game over his first five games. He has caught fire recently, though, as he’s averaging 17.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.7 steals (40.3 DK points) in 29.0 minutes per game. Carter only owns a 21.0% usage rating this season, but he also ranks third on the team in total rebound rate (13.3%), while leading the team with a 6.0% block rate.
Carter is expected to play minutes in the high-20s or low-30s tonight. His role on the team is expected to stay the same, meaning Carter could post a double double with peripheral stats. Carter is a bit too expensive on FanDuel to be a safe play, but he can be used in tournaments. He makes a great option in all leagues on DraftKings, where his price tag is entirely too cheap.
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