NBA DFS 12/1/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems » DFS Karma
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NBA DFS 12/1/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack

Sacramento Kings

The Sacramento Kings have been pushing the pace this season, ranking second in the NBA in pace through 21 games. They get a matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who only rank 27th in the league in pace this season. Indiana also ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating, but they will be without Victor Oladipo once again tonight. Sacramento has also found offensive success this season, ranking 15th in the league in offensive rating. The Kings are +2 point favorites in a game set at 225.5 points, and they own an implied total of 111.8 points tonight.

De’Aaron Fox has been enjoying a dominant season, recording a 23.9% usage rating through 21 games. He has cooled down a bit recently, averaging 14.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 8.5 assists, and 1.3 steals (34.3 DK points) in 32.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. With that being said, Fox has scored 38+ DK points in six of his last 10 games, including four games with 40+ DK points. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another player that is a bit too cheap on this shorter slate. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 18.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (30.3 DK points) in 31.4 minutes per game. He has been a consistent option, scoring 25+ DK points in five of his last six games. Bogdanovic has also scored 18+ points in three of his last four games, totaling 30+ DK points in each of those games. Similarly to Fox, Bogdanovic is expected to play 30+ minutes again tonight. Marvin Bagley is currently questionable tonight, but he’s an elite option if he’s starting. He has been unleashed a bit more recently, averaging 16.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 1.0 block (34.4 DK points) in 29.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Bagley has played 26+ minutes in each of his last six games, and he’s averaging 34.5 DK points per game over that span. If he’s out, Willie Cauley-Stein will likely be locked into 30+ minutes, and can be slotted in the final spot of this stack for Bagley.

 

Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack

Washington Wizards

The Washington Wizards are another team that has been pushing the pace this season, ranking sixth in the NBA in pace thus far. They’ll see a downtick against the Brooklyn Nets tonight, though, as they rank only 23rd in the league in pace through 23 games. Washington only ranks 20th in the NBA in offensive rating, but they get a plus matchup, as Brooklyn ranks 22nd in the league if defensive rating. The Wizards are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 227.5 points, giving them one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 117 points.

Otto Porter Jr. only owns a 15.6% usage rating this season, but he has caught fire recently. He has played 30+ minutes in four of his last five games, and he’s averaging 38.4 DK points per game in those contests. He has been a better fantasy option at home this season, and Porter is expected to return to big minutes after missing the Wizards last game. Bradley Beal is another player that has caught fire recently, averaging 22.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1.0 steal (39.9 DK points) in 37.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Furthermore, Beal has scored 38+ DK points in five of his last six contests, and he adds a bit of consistency to this stack. John Wall hasn’t found consistent success recently, but he owns a team-high 28.7% usage rating on the season. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 21.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 8.7 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.2 steals (43.1 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game. He has also recently scored 60.25 DK points against the Houston Rockets, and the Brooklyn Nets feature one of the worst defenses in the NBA against the point guard. Wall could go a bit overlooked because of the other point guard options on this slate, but he comes with tremendous upside in a plus matchup to fill out this stack.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Alec Burks

Alec Burks has been a great per minute player throughout his career, and this season has been no different. Through 18 games, he’s averaging 19.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.9 assists, and 1.0 steal on a per-36 minute basis. He saw 26 minutes in his first game with the Cleveland Cavaliers, scoring 15 points with six rebounds, four assists, and two steals (32.5 DK points).

Burks is expected to see minutes in the mid-20s with his new team once again tonight. While he doesn’t come with an elite usage rating, he should have no problems hitting value at his current price tag in those minutes. He gets a tough matchup against the Toronto Raptors, but he scored 29 DK points in 26.3 minutes against them in their only matchup this season. Burks is an elite salary relief option tonight.

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

DeMarre Carroll

DeMarre Carroll’s role has been anything but consistent through 12 games this season. With that being said, he’s averaging 8.8 points and 5.2 rebounds (17.4 DK points) in only 21.4 minutes per game this season. He’s also coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 21 points with 12 rebounds, one assist, and one steal (42.5 DK points) in 39 minutes.

It’s difficult to predict Carroll’s minutes, but he’s expected to play minutes in the mid-20s tonight, as he finally looks fully healthy. He’ll see a major uptick in pace against the Washington Wizards, and Carroll’s athleticism will allow him to take advantage of this matchup. He certainly comes with risk because of his lack of guaranteed playing time, but he also comes with tremendous upside for an extremely low price tag.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

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