My Core
Kyle Lowry- Lowry is not someone I typically roster in DFS due to him lacking the ceiling that other players priced around him have, but I just can’t pass him up tonight in a matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers. Not only do the Cavs rank dead-last in defensive efficiency against Point Guards this season, they also struggle mightily to defense the pick and roll, which has been Lowry’s biggest strength. He ranks sixth-overall in the NBA in pick and roll ball handler points per possession, while the Cavs come in third-worst at defending PNR ball handlers. He has actually gotten worse recently with Fred VanVleet out of the lineup, but this has come on some truly horrible shooting nights — 3-15, 1-8 and 5-14 over his last three contests. There’s no better matchup for him to get his shot going than the one he will see tonight, and the good news is we get him at a suppressed price tag based off those recent performances.
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Jimmy Butler- Butler continues to log heavy minutes for a short-handed Miami Heat team, he’s topped 37 in each of his last seven games, including four of those over 40 minutes of action. He leads the team in usage rate at 26%, and per minute production at 1.25, and draws a sparkling matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies who not only are a poor defensive unit, but are top-ten in pace as well. Over those seven games with over 37 minutes, he;s topped 43 fantasy points in all but one — a 38 DK points outing — and hit over 55 in four of them. He’s priced up, but it’s warranted, and he remains one of my favorite plays in all formats on Monday night.
Note: I don not plan on keeping my core at only two players, but need to wait and see on the injury news to see who else I would like to lock in. I personally think Blake Griffin will sit out tonight, while Andre Drummond will play, which would shoot Drummond to the top of my board and I would add him to the core section. If that’s not the case, I could add someone like Kristaps Porzingis who is a 1.5 fantasy point per minute player with a 33% usage rate with Luka Doncic on the floor, or look at one of James Harden/Giannis Antetokounmpo with any value that opens up.
Value Plays
Jalen Brunson- Brunson is pretty much the top value play on the slate with Luka Doncic out for the Mavericks due to an ankle injury, and it’s going to be hard to avoid him in any format. The numbers look pretty gross for him this season — 14% usage rate and 0.74 fantasy points per minute, but if you take Doncic off the floor they skyrocket up to a 24% usage rate and 1.08 FPPM. He started the second half for Doncic in the game that he got hurt, and our NBA Data Dashboard has him projected for over 30 minutes.
Pistons News- This slate is pretty much entirely contingent on whether or not Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond play. If one or both are out I would have a ton of interest in multiple players from this team, and would be comfortable with two or three of them in my main build. I think all of Luke Kennard, Derrick Rose, Christian Wood, and Markieff Morris are viable as all would see bumps in production if one of or both happened to sit out tonight.
Other value plays I’m considering are Derrick Jones, Tyler Herro and Danilo Gallinari on DraftKings. [/restrict]
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
