NBA DFS 12/6/18 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Phoenix Suns have been slowing the pace down this season, ranking only 20th in the NBA in pace through 24 games. They will see a small uptick in pace against the Portland Blazers tonight, who rank 17th in the league in pace this season. Phoenix has also struggled quite a bit offensively, ranking only 28th in the NBA in offensive rating, although Portland only ranks 21st in the league in defensive rating this season. Unsurprisingly, the Suns are +13.5 point underdogs in a game set at 215 points, and they only feature an implied total of 100.8 points.
There are a few players on Phoenix that are going to command plenty of ownership, but there are ways to keep this stack low owned. The first player is Mikal Bridges, and he will see plenty of ownership on this slate, and for good reason. He has started each of his last two games for the Suns, playing 34 and 31 minutes in those games. That will likely be the case again tonight, as well. In those games, he’s averaging 9.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.0 block, and 2.5 steals (24.6 DK points) per game. Furthermore, he has shot only 7-20 (2-12 from three-point range), suggesting he possesses significantly more scoring potential than he has showed in these starts. Josh Jackson will likely feature some ownership, as well, but less than we think. His price tag is up a bit, and he’s coming off somewhat of a disappointing game. Still, he has scored 20+ DK points in each of his last five games, and he’s averaging 12.0 points, 6.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.2 steals (27.2 DK points) in 27.2 minutes per game over that span. He has played 27+ minutes in each of his last three games, and he’s likely to eclipse that mark again with T.J. Warren doubtful to play tonight. Jackson quietly comes with tremendous upside in this game. De’Anthony Melton is the player we’re utilizing to separate this stack from the others. He played 23 minutes in his last game, scoring 21 points with two rebounds, five assists, and one steal (34 DK points). He also flashed with the Houston Rockets in the Summer League, averaging 16.4 points, 7.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 3.0 steals in 30.0 minutes per game. He’s expected to play 20+ minutes again tonight, and he makes an outstanding tournament option with his ability to fill the stat sheet quickly while on the court.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Turner comes with a surprisingly low price tag on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight. He has been playing at a higher level recently, as he’s averaging 9.5 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.3 assists (24.8 DK points) in 27.2 minutes per game over his last four games. He has scored 26+ DK points in three of those games, as well. Furthermore, Turner is averaging 0.95 DK points per minute at home this season, as opposed to 0.78 DK points per minute on the road.
Turner gets a great matchup against the Phoenix Suns tonight, as they rank 26th in the NBA against small forwards this season. He’s expected to play minutes in the high-20s again tonight, but he could jump into the 30s with C.J. McCollum dealing with an injury. Turner is going to command a ton of ownership tonight, and it’s going to be difficult to avoid him for his price tag.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Holmes has been enjoying a dominant season on a per minute basis, but he hasn’t been locked into big minutes. Overall, he’s averaging 16.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.6 steals, and 2.8 blocks on a per-36 minute basis. He’s also averaging 24.7 DK points in only 19.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Holmes has played 20+ minutes in each of his last two games, totaling 26.5 and 29.25 DK points in those games.
He gets a great matchup against the Portland Blazers, who currently rank 23rd in the NBA against power forwards. The Phoenix Suns recently stated that they believe Deandre Ayton has hit his rookie wall, but they want him to play through it. With that being said, Holmes could see 20+ minutes again tonight with Ayton struggling a bit, and he’s an elite option for a low price tag. He can also be considered in a Suns stack, but he should see plenty of ownership on only a three game slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)