My Core
Brandon Ingram + Lonzo Ball- This game between the Pelicans and Pistons has the second-highest O/U on the slate at 228, with just a one point spread. Both Ingram and Ball appeared under-priced relative to their ceilings — Ingram dominates the usage on this team at 29% with a 1.2 fantasy point per minute tally, while Ball himself owns a respectable 22% usage rate with 0.98 DK points per minute. This mainly has to due with their pricing, they are both too cheap for the projected pace of this game and stacking them up makes sense to me on both FanDuel and DraftKings in cash games on Monday night.
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Lou Williams- Lou Will was one of our favorite early season targets while Paul George was out for the Clippers, and he will get a bump up tonight with Kawhi Leonard sitting out the second leg of the back-to-back, even with George playing. Take a loot at the numbers with / without Kawhi on the floor this season:
With Leonard on: 22% usage rate, 0.90 fantasy points per minute
With Leonard off: 31.9% usage rate, 1.25 fantasy points per minute
Quite a bump up, eh? Williams is not priced according to Leonard being out, and even in a relatively tough matchup against the Indiana Pacers, I will be taking advantage of the savings.
Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)- This is the game of the night between the Wolves and Suns featuring a massive 233 O/U. Towns comes in at over $11,000 on FanDuel, but only $9,300 on DraftKings…what the? His numbers have maintained elite status all season with 1.5 fantasy points per minute and a 29% usage rate, and he could get an even bigger bump should Andrew Wiggins (questionable) miss tonight’s game. I definitely want toms exposure to this game, and as of now I plan to build around Towns on DK and focus more on a balanced build, rather than the usual stars and scrubs we are normally accustomed to.
Value Plays
Gordon Hayward- DraftKings wins the award for stupidity today, we already knew that there was a slight chance that Hayward would return from injury tonight, and now it looks like a lock to happen while he is priced at the minimum cost of $3,000. He put up 1.17 fantasy points per minute this season before getting hurt, and even if he is limited to around 20 minutes tonight, he is a lock at this sort of a price tag.
Serge Ibaka- Ibaka is my other top value play as of right now, and I actually don’t think he will get too chalky due to him not having a secure big minute role. The Bulls give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing Power Forwards this season, and Ibaka actually has the second-highest usage rate on the team behind Pascal Siakam at 26%, with 1.1 fantasy points per minute. I think that FPPM number could take a small jump tonight given the quality of the matchup, and even with mid-20’s in minutes I think he can smash his price tag.
That’s about it for value plays I’m strongly considering right now. We could have some more open up before lock depending on what happens with any other injury situations.
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Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
