Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings will be playing in one of the fastest paced games on the slate, as these teams rank seventh and second in the NBA in pace, respectively. Philadelphia has also found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking 10th in the league in offensive rating through 52 games. This is a plus matchup against Sacramento, who ranks only 21st in the league in defensive rating. The Sixers are -3 point favorites in a game set at 234 points, and they feature an implied total of 118.5 points.
The Sixers will be running a short rotation tonight, Wilson Chandler and JJ Redick have already been ruled out. Corey Brewer is an extremely cheap option, and he’s set to play roughly 30 minutes tonight. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 8.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 2.3 steals (18.6 DK points) in 23.1 minutes per game. He has played 30+ minutes in two games for the Sixers this season, scoring 38.5 and 22.75 DK points. He may not be the sexier pick, but his price tag is far too cheap to ignore for his role tonight. Joel Embiid is one of the more expensive options on the slate, but Brewer’s price tag makes him an easy option to fit into this stack. He has been playing well recently, averaging 29.0 points, 16.7 rebounds, and 4.7 assists (58.8 DK points) in 33.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Embiid has scored 50+ DK points in each of his last seven games, while scoring 60+ DK points in three of his last four games. Sacramento has featured one of the worst defenses in the NBA against centers, and Embiid makes an elite option on this slate. Jimmy Butler will likely feature ownership tonight, but I’m siding with the consistency of Ben Simmons in this stack. Simmons has looked outstanding recently, as he’s averaging 21.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 1.8 steals (49.3 DK points) in 36.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 40+ DK points in eight of his last 10 games, while also scored 60+ DK points in three of those games. To explain more consistency, Simmons owns 50+ DK points in six of those 10 games. Sacramento is a team to attack because of their pace and lack of defense, and Philadelphia makes an elite stacking option on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs have been slowing the pace down throughout the 2018 season, ranking only 22nd in the NBA in pace thus far. They get a matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans, who rank 52nd in the league in pace through 52 games. New Orleans also ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive rating, while San Antonio ranks sixth in the league in offensive rating. The Spurs are -10.5 point favorites in a game set at 229.5 points, giving the Spurs one of the highest implied totals on the slate at 120 points.
Derrick White continues to be surprisingly cheap, as he has found plenty of success recently. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 16.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.6 steals (34.0 DK points) in 29.4 minutes per game. He has scored 29+ DK points in each of his last five games, and he’s coming off of a 45.75 DK point performance in only 25 minutes against the Brooklyn Nets. White is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight, and he’s averaging 18.9 DK points in only 20.1 minutes per game against New Orleans this season. DeMar DeRozan struggled in his first game back from injury, scoring only 35 DK points in 36 minutes. With that being said, it has kept his price tag low, and he comes with elite upside at his current price. He has found success against New Orleans throughout the season, averaging 23.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists (35.6 DK points) in 34.3 minutes per game. DeRozan isn’t necessarily the safest option on the slate, but he comes with tremendous upside for his price tag. LaMarcus Aldridge has been playing too well and comes with too much upside to be avoided in this stack. He’s averaging 24.0 points, 10.6 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.2 blocks (46.5 DK points) in 34.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has scored 55+ DK points in three of his last four games, while totaling 50+ DK points in four of his last nine games. Aldridge is averaging 1.19 DK points per minute against New Orleans this season, and that average could increase with the multiple injuries they are dealing with. San Antonio has a few safe options, but this stack in specific is extremely high upside.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers are two more teams that have been pushing the pace throughout the 2018 season. Thus far, these two teams rank 10th and fourth in the NBA in pace. Golden State also leads the league in offensive rating this season, while Los Angeles ranks eighth in the NBA in defensive rating. Still, the Warriors are -11 point favorites in a game set at 236 points, and they own the highest implied total on the slate at 123.5 points.
Golden State simply has too many options for their players to all garner high ownership. Stephen Curry is still leader of the offense, but he’s significantly less consistent with the majority of the roster healthy. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 32.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists (46.6 DK points) in 34.4 minutes per game. More importantly, he still owns plenty of upside, as he’s coming off of a 59 DK point performance against the Philadelphia 76ers. Surprisingly, Curry is averaging only 33.6 DK points in 33.3 minutes per game against LA this season, but he won’t be dealing with the defense of Lonzo Ball tonight. Draymond Green is a player that has caught fire recently, but has seemingly been overlooked a bit. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 5.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 1.8 blocks, and 2.3 steals (39.0 DK points) in 34.0 minutes per game. He has scored 33+ DK points in six of his last seven games, including a 52.5 DK point performance against the New Orleans Pelicans. Green is a player that relies heavily on peripheral stats, and he will benefit greatly from the pace of this game. Kevon Looney is another player that is going overlooked, but he’s entirely too cheap. He has lost minutes since the return of DeMarcus Cousins, but he role hasn’t truly changed. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 11.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 1.0 block, and 1.0 steal (24.8 DK points) in only 19.3 minutes per game. Even with the limited minutes, Looney has scored 28.25, 27.75, 24, and 31 DK points in four of his last five games. He will come with extremely low ownership, and he’s the type of player that can win a tournament.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Monte Morris has seen all of the love since the injury to Jamal Murray, but Beasley has been nearly as good in those games. In two games without Murray, Beasley is averaging 28.5 points, 2.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (37.8 DK points) in 35.0 minutes per game. He has continued to get better as the season progresses, and Beasley is in his best form at the moment.
Murray is expected to miss this game, meaning Beasley should continue to see plenty of minutes in this game. He also recorded 1.06 DK point per minute against the Minnesota Wolves in their only matchup this season, and Beasley should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight. He relies heavily on scoring, but he has been playing so well that he can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Williams has been my secret love, and this isn’t my first time recommending him. He’s playing bigger minutes with all of the injuries to the New Orleans Pelicans, and Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Nikola Mirotic, Elfrid Payton, and E’Twaun Moore have all been ruled out tonight. In his only two games with 30+ minutes, Williams is averaging 14.5 points, 12.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.5 blocks (36.0 DK points) in 34.0 minutes per game.
With all of those players injured, Williams is expected to see 30+ minutes again tonight. He also gets a plus matchup against the San Antonio Spurs, who have struggled defensively throughout the 2018 season. Williams is guard and forward eligible on DraftKings, which makes him an extremely valuable salary relief asset. He can be considered in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)