Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems for today’s NBA DFS slate for DraftKings! Below, I will discuss my favorite NBA DFS plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
San Antonio Spurs
The San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks rank 15th and 18th in the NBA in pace, respectively. San Antonio also ranks 12th in the league in offensive rating, while Dallas ranks 17th in defensive rating. The Spurs are +3.5 point underdogs in a game set at 227.5 points, but they still boast an implied team total of 112 points.
Derrick White will gain value with the absence of Dejounte Murray tonight. White has been playing well recently, averaging 13.0 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 blocks, and 1.0 steal (24.9 DK points) in only 23.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He has seen somewhat of limited minutes in recent games, but still posted 20+ DK points in 9 of his last 10 contests. White flashed 40 DK point upside over that span, as well. He’s expected to see minutes in the high-20s tonight, and could find a larger offensive role. He’s a safe option, who quietly boasts upside for San Antonio.
LaMarcus Adridge is expected to sit out once again tonight, forcing DeMar DeRozan into a bigger offensive role once again. While he has struggled a bit in recent games, DeRozan posted 43.5 and 43.25 DK points in 42 and 31 minutes in his last 2 games. He’s expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-30s in this game. DeRozan will likely see his usage rating increase to near 30%, as he’s a player that boasts triple-double upside with elite scoring potential. He’s averaging 46.4 DK points in 34.1 minutes per game against Dallas this season, as well. DeRozan is surprisingly cheap with the injuries to San Antonio, and he’s a must start in this stack.
Trey Lyles will also benefit from the injury of Aldridge. He’s averaging 15.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.0 block, and 1.6 steals (31.4 DK points) in 34.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He posted 29+ DK points in 4 of his last 5 games, including a 44.75 DK point performance against the Orlando Magic. Will see big locked into big minutes once again tonight, and he’s an outstanding option for a reasonable price tag.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Houston Rockets and Minnesota Wolves currently rank fourth and second in the NBA in pace this season. Houston also ranks second in the league in offensive rating, while Minnesota ranks 20th in defensive rating. The Rockets are -12.5 point favorites in a game set at 246.5 points tonight, and they possess the highest implied team total on the slate at 129.5 points.
Russell Westbrook has seen mixed results in recent games. He’s averaging 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.3 steals (49.5 DK points) in 35.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He posted 58+ DK points in 3 of his last 5 games. Westbrook has been better in Houston this season, and he’s averaging 63.0 DK points per game against Minnesota. He boasts triple-double potential because of the pace of this game, and he’s an elite option in 30+ minutes tonight.
James Harden is the other focal point of the Houston offense. He’s averaging 25.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 8.0 assists, and 2.6 steals (49.2 DK points) in 37.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Harden hasn’t found as much success against Minnesota, but is another player that boasts triple-double upside. Harden will be locked into big minutes tonight, and possesses 70+ DK point upside. He makes a great option on this slate.
Robert Covington is averaging 14.2 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, 2.4 blocks, and 1.0 steal (35.8 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He boasts 50+ DK point upside, although he has been an inconsistent option in recent games. Still, Covington is an athletic big that will benefit from the pace of this game. He has found success against Minnesota this season, and he’s an outstanding option for a surprisingly low price tag.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
The Portland Blazers rank 12th in the NBA in pace, while the Phoenix Suns rank ninth in the league in the same category. Portland also ranks 10th in the NBA in offensive rating, while Phoenix ranks 19th in defensive rating. The Blazers are -4 point favorites in a game set at 232.5 points, giving them an implied team total of 118.3 points tonight.
Damian Lillard has struggled since returning from injury. He’s averaging 19.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.3 steals (35.5 DK points) in 34.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He possesses 80+ DK point upside, though. Lillard has been at his best in Portland, where he’ll be playing tonight. He’s expected to see minutes in the mid-30s tonight, and his recent struggles will keep his ownership down.
CJ McCollum has continued to find his success. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 28.4 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.2 steals (46.6 DK points) in 36.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He doesn’t boast the same upside that he flashed without Lillard on the court, but he has scored 35+ DK point in each game with Lillard back. He’ll be locked into big minutes tonight, and he’s an outstanding tournament option against Phoenix.
Hassan Whiteside could see more ownership, but he is a must start in a Portland stack. He’s averaging 20.6 points, 14.6 rebounds, 1.0 assist, and 3.2 blocks (47.8 DK points) in 32.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He posted 55+ DK points in 2 of his last 3 games. Whiteside is also averaging nearly 50 DK points per game against Phoenix this season. He has found more success in Portland this season, and he’s an elite option on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Patty Mills has seen plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season. He has cooled off recently, averaging 11.8 pointst, 1.0 rebound, and 1.2 steals (17.9 DK points) in 20.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Mills recently scored as many as 34.5 DK points in only 23 minutes against the Indiana Pacers. He boasts elite upside when he decides to take over games.
Mills gets a matchup against the Dallas Mavericks, which has already been outlined above. Mills is expected to see 20-25 minutes tonight. He could see a larger role in the offense with Dejounte Murray and LaMarcus Aldridge injury, though. Mills is cheap enough to be used in cash games, but he’s best suited for tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Bobby Portis is a high risk, high reward option for the New York Knicks. He’s averaging 13.4 points and 4.4 rebounds (22.7 DK points) in only 22.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Portis posted 27+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 games, while flashing tremendous upside throughout the season. He generally finds a usage rating around 25%, and that’s likely to be the case again tonight.
Portis gets an elite matchup against the Washington Wizards. They rank fifth in the NBA in pace and last in defensive rating through 63 games. Portis is expected to see 20-25 minutes once again tonight. He isn’t safe enough to be used in cash games, but makes an outstanding tournament option.
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