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NBA DFS 3/11/20 – Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems for DraftKings

Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems for today’s NBA DFS slate for DraftKings! Below, I will discuss my favorite NBA DFS plays for tonight’s slate!

 

Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack 

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets rank 17th and 29th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Dallas also leads the league in offensive rating, while Denver ranks 12th in defensive rating. The Mavericks are +2.5 point underdogs in a game set at 220 points, but they still boast an implied team total of 108.8 points. 

Luka Doncic

Seth Curry, Jalen Brunson, and Kristaps Porzingis have all been ruled out tonight. Luka Doncic will continue to play a massive role in the offense, as his usage rating could sit near 40%. He’s averaging 29.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists, and 1.6 steals (57.2 DK points) in 36.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Doncic has posted 60+ DK points in 3 of his last 4 contests, including a 73.25 DK point performance against the New Orleans Pelicans. He’ll see minutes in the mid- to high-30s tonight, making him one arguably the best option on the slate tonight. 

Tim Hardaway Jr. 

Tim Hardaway Jr. is another player that could see an extended role in the offense tonight. He has caught fire recently, averaging 22.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.0 steal (34.4 DK points) in 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Hardaway Jr. has posted 30+ DK points in 6 of his last 9 games, including a near 50 DK point performance against the Atlanta Hawks. He’ll continue to see plenty of shot attempts, as he’ll be the second option in the offense behind Doncic. Hardaway is another player that will see 30+ minutes in this game, and he can be considered in a Dallas stack tonight. 

Maxi Kleber

Maxi Kleber will see 30+ minutes tonight without Porzingis in the lineup. He’s averaging 7.2 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.8 blocks (23.8 DK points) in 30.4 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He posted 20+ DK points in 8 of his last 10 games, including a 37.5 DK point performance against the Chicago Bulls. Kleber is also averaging 30 DK points in only 26.5 minutes per game against Denver this season. He’s far too cheap for this slate, and makes an outstanding salary relief option. 

 

Important Odds: Vegas Stack 

New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans and Sacramento Kings currently rank second and 22nd in the NBA in pace this season. New Orleans ranks 15th in the league in offensive rating, while Sacramento ranks 18th in defensive rating. The Pelicans are -1.5 point favorites in a game set at 233 points tonight, and they possess one of the highest implied team totals on the slate at 117.3 points. 

Lonzo Ball

Lonzo Ball has found tremendous success recently. He’s averaging 20.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 2.2 steals (48.6 DK points) in 36.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He posted 39+ DK points in 6 consecutive games, including a trio of games with 50+ DK points. Ball dominated Sacramento in their only matchup this season, and he’s a player that boasts triple-double upside. He’ll see 35+ minutes once again tonight, making him an elite option. 

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday has also caught fire in recent games. He’s averaging 22.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 7.6 assists, and 1.4 steals (48.0 DK points) in 37.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Holiday posted 40+ DK points in each of his last 4 games, and he’s coming off of a 65.25 DK point performance. Similarly to Ball, he’ll see big minutes tonight, and he’s an outstanding option for New Orleans tonight. 

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson has cooled off a bit recently, but he’s still averaging 24.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (37.6 DK points) in 32.5 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Williamson is a massive part of the offense, although he hasn’t been overly consistent. He’ll see 30+ minutes in this game, though, and comes with tremendous upside. Williamson is best suited for tournaments on this slate. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Guard

Monte Morris

Monte Morris has been anything but consistent this season. Over the last 10 days, he’s averaging 9.0 points, 1.2 rebounds, and 3.2 assists (17.9 DK points) in 24.3 minutes per game. Morris is averaging 0.86 DK points per minute on the season, though. He’s a high upside option, as well, scoring 33.5 DK points in a recent game against the Minnesota Wolves. 

Morris gets a solid matchup against the Dallas Mavericks tonight. They rank 17th in the NBA in both pace and defensive rating. Morris is expected to see 20-25 minutes tonight. He’s a relatively cheap option, who flashed upside in limited minutes throughout the season. He’s a solid GPP option on this slate. 

 

Hidden Gem: Value Big

Nicolo Melli

Nicolo Melli has seen mixed results throughout the 2019 season. He’s averaging 7.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (18.5 DK points) in 23.0 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Melli posted 20+ DK points in 6 of his last 9 games. Over that span, he flashed 30+ DK point upside in only 23 minutes against the Golden State Warriors. 

Melli gets a plus matchup against the Sacramento Kings, which has already been outlined above. He’s expected to see 20-25 minutes once again tonight. It’s a short slate, so he can be considered in cash games, but he’s a player that is best suited for tournaments, even on this small of a slate.

 

Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)

NBA DFS Core Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel

DFS Karma is partnered with DraftKings. We are also avid fans and users. As such, we may sometimes play on our personal accounts in the games that we offer advice on. Although we have expressed our personal view on games and strategies, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings. We may deploy different players and strategies than what we recommended in this article. We are not employees of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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