NBA DFS 3/11/2022 - Ben's Game Theory » DFS Karma
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Welcome to our NBA DFS Game Theory! In this article, we outline our favorite cash game and GPP options at each position. We utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of our Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Bold Calls
Luka Doncic Herb Jones Jonas Valanciunas Alperen Sengun 50 DK points
De’Vonte Graham RJ Barrett Maxi Kleber Kyle  Kuzma 30+ real points
Jose Alvarado Evan Mobley Wendell Carter Jr RJ Barrett triple double
Alec Burks LeBron James Alperen Sengun
Darius Garland Kyle Kuzma Robert Williams

 


 

Cash Game Strategy

Optimal lineups tonight are going to be full of New Orleans exposure, as they look to be without both Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. These two absences, along with the likes of Josh Hart who is no longer on the team, provide huge boosts to the expected starting players. De’Vonte Graham is someone we have seen capable of taking 15+ shots a game last season, and Jonas Valanciunas was absolutely balling earlier this season when the offense was running more through him. Overall, I would expect to have 3-4 Pels in a cash game type build tonight, the aforementioned two plus Herb Jones and potentially one other cheap piece depending on the starting lineup. We also have some big-time injury tags, with the likes on Lebron James, Jimmy Butler and Christian Wood still slated as questionable for Friday night. LeBron missing would provide huge bumps to the entire Lakers team, but guys like Russ Westbrook and Malik Monk would become must-plays for me in this match-up. Wood missing again would move Alperen Sengun from the pink tier to an orange-level play for me even at an increased price tag.

Overall there’s going to be more value opening up, so I will be prioritizing Luka Doncic as a my top spend-up. He has been on a tear in recent weeks, regularly putting up games with a 40% usage rate. He has the highest ceiling on the slate by a wide margin, and is in a great spot against the hapless Houston Rockets defense. Alec Burks is someone that’s picking up a lot of early ownership, but it will come down to roster construction for me after Doncic + my Pelicans targets.

GPP Strategy

I think there are always a few different strong GPP strategies on bigger slates like this, but one for me tonight would be attacking the opposite side of the New Orleans game. Charlotte are only listed as 2.5 point favorites tonight, so we have no reason to expect anything other than a close game. We know everyone will be jamming in 3+ Pelicans players, but according to early OWN% projections very few players will be correlating their teams with Hornets. Lamelo Ball and Miles Bridges both have immense ceilings at sub-10% ownership projections, and can be used as run-backs with a few Pelicans players. I also would be looking for the lower owned NO players, and considering being overweight on them. If someone like Jaxson Hayes is going to be 20%+ lower owned than Herb Jones, we can take a stand there in larger field contests.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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