NBA DFS 3/15/2022 - Ben's Game Theory » DFS Karma
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Welcome to our NBA DFS Game Theory! In this article, we outline our favorite cash game and GPP options at each position. We utilize our Projections Portal when making decisions about what types of leagues specific players are best suited for. You can get all of our Core Plays along with our Cheat Sheets, projections, and Premium Discord channels with our Premium NBA Package.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Bold Calls
Tyus Jones Dillon Brooks Wendell Carter Isaiah Jackson 40+ DK points
Desmond Bane Isaiah Jackson Bam Adebayo Kyrie Irving 30+ real points
CJ McCollum Cade Cunningham Steven Adams Markelle Fultz top per dollar play
Markelle Fultz Jaren Jackson Andre Drummond
Kyrie Irving Kevin Durant

 


 

Cash Game Strategy

Despite receiving news on Monday that Ja Morant is doubtful for this game, the sites were slow to react with pricing per usual. This is going to push tons of ownership onto the Memphis guards — with Tyus Jones projecting for over 50% and Desmond Bane and Dillon Brooks catching over 20% projections as well. If we isolate the last time that Morant missed extended action, we find that Dillon Brooks and Jaren Jackson were the clear team leaders in usage rate. Jones was around 0.9 fantasy points per minute and takes on much more of a facilitator role. We also see Desmond Bane remain a 1.1 fantasy point per minute player. Overall, it’s going to be tough to avoid a Memphis stack in cash games, but you can always side with one or two lower-owned pieces from the team in tournaments.

CJ McCollum and Kyrie Irving feature the highest ceiling projections in our Projections Portal at the Guard spots, making them my preferred spend-ups. McCollum returns Tuesday after a multi-game absence, but the Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram. He’s been a beast since joining the Pels, and the numbers only rise with Ingram off the floor — especially in the assists department. Irving has looked phenomenal and healthy when on the floor for the Nets, and Orlando has struggled with ball-dominant guards this season. I would be looking to bet the over on Irving’s points scored, and I think he has a realistic shot at 30+ real points again on Tuesday night.

At Forward, it’s more of the same with the Grizzlies hogging a majority of the projected ownership. One guy that I have tagged as a cash play is Isaiah Jackson, who I love if Goga Bitadze gets ruled out for the Pacers again tonight. At Center, Wendell Carter sticks out as the top overall play in all formats, and would correlate well on the opposite side of Kyrie Irving. He is well over 1.1 fantasy points per minute this season, and we love his individual match-up against Andre Drummond.

GPP Strategy

In GPPs, per usual, I’ll be seeking out some correlation for my stud-level players. I noted above I really like this spot for Irving, and he would be a must for me on both sites. Wendell Carter is picking up really heavy ownership, so I don’t hate the fade. One person on the Magic that can be used as a lower-owned run-back or even in a game stack is Markelle Fultz. His minutes haven’t been great, but he actually leads the team in points per minute since coming back and it comes with a 24% usage rate as well. This is really a spot for him to get going on offense, and with Jalen Suggs out, maybe the minutes creep into the mid-20’s finally.

Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)

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