Welcome to Bales’ Stacks and Hidden Gems for today’s NBA DFS slate for DraftKings! Below, I will discuss my favorite NBA DFS plays for tonight’s slate!
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
The Philadelphia 76ers and Golden State Warriors rank 19th and 11th in the NBA in pace, respectively. Philadelphia only ranks 18th in the league in offensive rating, while Golden State ranks 24th in defensive rating. The Sixers are -2.5 point favorites in a game set at 221.5 points, and they boast an implied team total of 112 points tonight.
Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, and Joel Embiid continue to miss time, forcing Tobias Harris to take over the offense. He’s averaging 23.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.0 steal (41.8 DK points) in 36.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Harris hasn’t been the most consistent, but he has scored 55+ DK points in 2 of his last 4 games. His usage rating is sitting around 30% on a nightly basis, as well. Harris is expected to find minutes in the mid- to high-30s tonight. There are only five games on this slate, meaning you may have to use someone a bit more risky in cash games.
Mike Scott has also been forced into bigger minutes because of injuries tonight. He played 25+ minutes in each of his last 3 games. In those games, he’s averaging 11.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.0 steal (28.3 DK points) in 29.0 minutes per game. Scott also flashed 30+ DK point upside in those contests. He doesn’t boast a great usage rating, but his ability to contribute in multiple categories has kept his per minute production up in his new role. Scott is expected to see 25+ minutes once again tonight, and his price tag has caught up to his production yet.
Al Horford has been another consistent option with a larger role in the rotation. He’s averaging 12.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.4 steals (35.7 DK points) in 33.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Horford has scored 30+ DK points in each of his last 5 games, while flashing 40+ DK point upside over that span. He nearly triple-doubled in his only matchup against Golden State this season, and he’ll see 30+ minutes again tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
The Memphis Grizzlies and Atlanta Hawks currently rank seventh and sixth in the NBA in pace this season. Memphis only ranks 20th in the league in offensive rating, although Atlanta ranks 28th in defensive rating. The Grizzlies are -6.5 point favorites in a game set at 233 points tonight, and they possess the highest implied team total on the slate at 119.8 points.
Ja Morant has been a bit of a boom or bust option for Memphis this season. He’s averaging 16.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 8.7 assists (36.3 DK points) in 30.2 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Morant recently flashed his upside, scoring 59.5 DK points against the Los Angeles Lakers. He’s the leader of the offense, and is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues in a plus matchup on a smaller slate tonight, but he’s best suited for tournaments.
Dillon Brooks was on a cold streak recently, but he’s averaging 19.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.2 assists (26.9 DK points) in 30.1 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Brooks is a player that boasts 40+ DK point upside, as he’s a primary scorer for Memphis. Atlanta is a team that is known to struggle against scoring guards. Brooks will see 30+ minutes tonight, and he’s a high upside option for the Grizzlies.
Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 14.8 points, 16.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists (39.0 DK points) in only 27.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. He boasts 50+ DK point upside when given the minutes. Valanciunas needed only 24.6 minutes to score 38.25 DK points against Atlanta earlier this season, and he could find similar results tonight. His minutes have been anything but consistent, and unfortunately, that could continue tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Guard
Joe Ingles has been heating up in recent games. He’s averaging 8.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.0 steal (26.5 DK points) in 29.0 minutes per game over his last 4 games. Ingles scored 20+ DK points in each of those games, including a 33.75 DK point performance against the Boston Celtics. Surprisingly, he has been better on the road, where he’s averaging 0.86 DK points per minute this season.
Ingles gets an interesting matchup against the Detroit Pistons. They rank 28th in the NBA in pace, but only 22nd in defensive rating. Ingles is expected to see 30+ minutes tonight. He’ll also see a larger offensive role if Mike Conley sits the second half of Utah’s back-to-back, although that looks to be up in the air at the moment. If Conley is out, Ingles can be used in all leagues. If Conley starts, Ingles is best suited for tournaments.
Hidden Gem: Value Big
Paul Millsap is the definition of a boom or bust option. He’s averaging 9.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists (19.5 DK points) in 21.3 minutes per game over the last 10 days. Since returning from injury, Millsap has scored as many as 43.25 DK points and as few as 7.75 DK points in each of his games. Most importantly, he flashed absurd upside, scoring those 43.25 DK points in only 19 minutes against the San Antonio Spurs.
Millsap gets a plus matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. They only rank 21st in the NBA in pace, but they also rank 29th in defensive rating. Millsap is expected to find minutes in the mid-20s tonight. His recent inconsistencies have kept him cheap, but he’s an elite tournament option on a slate with only five games.
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