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Sometimes we all have to remember that time is our most valuable resource, we only have a limited amount of it on a given day, week or even lifetime so cherish it. I’ve been pulled in a number of directions lately so DFS has taken a bit of a back seat, but I’m ready to start diving back in over the next month with my schedule opening up. Tonight we get a small 4 game slate so we should really be able to dive into these teams and maybe uncover a low owned gem for tournaments to try and get a little different.
Injuries
- Ja Morant – Doubtful
- CJ McCollum – Questionable
- Cade Cunnigham – Questionable
- Malcolm Brogdon – Available to Play
- Isaiah Stewart – Probable
- Seth Curry – Questionable
- Chris Duarte – Questionable
- Gary Harris – available to play
- Goga Bitadze – Questionable
- Cam Thomas – Questionable
We have quite a bit of injury news for a 4 game slate, so it’s tough to feel too confident in the plays this early in the day. The big news is that Ja Morant is doubtful and that should open up tons of value on Memphis. There isn’t much of a late swap edge tonight since all the games start between 7:00 and 8:00 EST so have your lineups ready come lock time.
GUARDS
At guard we have a no-brainer cash game play in Tyus Jones at $3400 on DK. With Ja expected to be out, Jones should see 30+ minutes and he’s surprisingly close to a fantasy point per minute producer with Morant off the floor. Even in tournaments, Tyus is close to a lock button play in all formats as there are very few paths to him failing other than an injury or foul trouble. The rest of the Guards look to be appropriately priced, I’ll probably side with Desmond Bane as my next favorite Guard play at a $6,700 price tag. I’m expecting him to get a usage uptick and he produces around 1.1 fantasy points per minute with Morant off the court. He looks like a safe play with upside, but for GPPs we probably don’t want to play all the Memphis plays as it’s unlikely they all produce GPP winning scores. I’d limit my exposure to three to four Grizzlies at most in tournaments.
FORWARDS.
At Forward we can again look to Memphis for some value. Dillon Brooks is priced way down at $4,900 on DK since he just returned from injury. In his one game back from injury, he did start and played 26 minutes and took 14 shots. I expect the minutes to tick up and he typically produces over a fantasy point per minute with Ja off the floor. He’ll be chalky on this small 4 game slate so make sure we are differentiating our lineups in other ways for GPPs. The other forward play I like is Wendell Carter Jr. He’s been smashing of late and is playing big minutes in competitive games. With Suggs off the floor, Mr. Carter has been at 1.15 fantasy points per minute on the year and gets a fast paced match-up with Brooklyn. The only issue here is this game could blowout, but should it stay competitive we have to feel good about Carter being the reason why. I’ll be pairing Carter with Kevin Durant for correlation in a number of my tournament lineups this evening.
Center
Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of the scariest chalk plays in DFS (Alex Len takes the cake). However, I don’t think he’s going to be extreme chalk tonight with projected 20% ownership. Jackson has massive upside at a $6,500 price tag with no Morant. Triple J has been at 1.26 fantasy points per minute and 31% usage with Ja off the floor this season. The minutes are the big issue but if he can keep his hands to himself I expect around 30 minutes tonight for a Memphis team with an implied Vegas total of 121 points. I’ll have a lot of Jaren Jackson tonight and just hope he doesn’t burn me like he’s done so many times in the past (we have to have a short memory in DFS).
It’s a small slate with not much of a late swap edge so I’ll be playing lighter tonight with not as much of an edge as some other larger slates. Hopefully if it isn’t me, one of my readers will take down a GPP tonight.
Cash Plays: Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, RJ Hampton
GPP Plays: Jaren Jackson, CJ McCollum, Malcolm Brogdon, Cole Anthony
Enjoy the games.
Max
