It’s been a long off-season (of playing summer league and preseason NBA….puke). We finally have NBA DFS back in our lives for better or worse. This is my first article as I’m new to the team so feel free to message me some thoughts, suggestions and critiques to help me provide better content. I’m also a die hard Wizards fan (maybe the only one on earth?) so you know up front where my heavy Daniel Gafford bias comes from this year. Also to note, I mainly play on Draftkings so this article will be geared to Draftkings specific plays. Without further ado lets dive right into the slate.
General +EV tips for opening night:
- The DK Best Ball tournaments seem to have major overlay brewing. I suggest firing a few bullets as the $20 Shootaround has a $100K to first top prize and less than half full at time of this writing.
- I also anticipate overlay for the first DFS slate as many tourneys are less than a quarter filled on DK. In years past the first slates are more likely to have overlay as I think sites have trouble sizing the tourney correctly to start the year. DFS sites also want to gain your business in a new sport by giving you a better chance to profit. I always try to take advantage of this and throw a few extra shots where I can at lock when there’s overlay (save some of your bankroll for night 1 to target this overlay in the last 2 minutes before lock)
- Projections are fragile to start the year as we don’t have much data on some of these new teams and how minutes will be allocated/how new players will interact/perform with their new teammates (Westbrook, Milsap, Deandre Jordan, Aldridge, etc.). It’s a good slate to deviate from projections some for GPPs.
- The start of the year brings with it some new blood. We should see more new users trying out NBA so the fields shouldn’t be as sharp to start the year. If playing cash try to target new names/inexperienced players in the lobby as there should be more than normal on opening night. Also, be selective when your picking 3 man’s and 50/50s to see what users have already registered for the contest.
The Plays:
- My favorite spend of the day is Giannis – not sure of ownership yet but he provides a high floor and high ceiling and with so many studs the ownership should be somewhat spread out. He had a 1.64 fpm rate last year. The concern with giannis is minutes as the bucks blow a lot of teams out and also Giannis has a knack for getting in foul trouble. Versus the Nets I see this being a very competitive game as backed up by a 1 point spread so Giannis could get some big minutes here.
- The next spend I’ll be going to is James Harden. Without Kyrie and with Durant last year he was at 1.56 fpm. The SG spot is pretty weak today so spending up to a slightly discounted James harden at $9300 is where I’ll be allocating some funds.
- Deandre Jordan – I love Deandre Jordan tonight and I think he starts but we will have to monitor news. He can rack up rebounds and dunks in a hurry and there are a lot of distributors on this team with lebron and Westie to get lob city going. At a $3.8K tag, if he can get 20ish minutes he should pay off that salary with upside for more if he gets the large majority of the minutes split with Dwight.
- Aldridge/Milsap/Blake- I think one of them has a big game tomorrow at their cheap price tags. The problem is who? Keep track of news to see who is starting but you can still play either Milsap or Aldridge in large field GPPs off the bench at their under 4K price tags. (just don’t play them together). Early projections seem to be showing milsap as chalk (not sure I believe that) but if Milsap is chalky then swerve and play aldridge or blake for large field GPPs.
- Poole is a tough play to fade as he had a monster preseason while playing minutes with curry. He’s just too cheap for this slate. On a 2 game slate I don’t see any other cheap plays with this type of upside.
The Fades:
- Lakers Spends – I’m not sure what to make of the Westbrook addition as this could spread out usage and have a slightly negative impact on Lebron and Westbrook. Also, I’ve noticed in the past that I like playing AD when he plays the 5…having Deandre and Dwight at Center for the whole game should take away rebounds from AD. In addition, Westbrook is a stat hog so I can see AD having a down year by his standards due to low rebounding volume. I’m going to be off the Lakers night 1 as they get acclimated with one another and I’ll be underweight in GPPs as I’d rather pay up at the F spot to get to Giannis or Durant.
- Kent Bazemore – I’m thinking he is going to be chalky as their just aren’t may plays under $4K….it’s Kent Bazemore…you can fade this guy. He may get minutes but he will have no usage while on the court with the Big 3. A direct pivot on the same team would be Carmelo as I’m thinking Bazemore will have higher ownership than melo. If melo gets hot he could steal some minutes from bazemore so I don’t mind that pivot in GPPs. Melo also should have high usage in a bench role. There’s also the possibility this game goes small which would help the minutes upside for Carmelo.
Large GPP Multi Entry Groups:
These are some rules I’m considering for mass multi entry GPPs. With such a small slate you probably don’t need too many groups as its close to a showdown slate so you will need to get different in GPPs.
- 1 of Milsap/Aldridge/Blake Griffin
- Pair Draymond with Curry
- 1 of Wiggins/Poole
- 1 of Westbrook/Lebron
- 1 of Dwight/Deandre/AD
- 1 of Bazemore/Carmelo
In general I like the Bucks v Nets game more for game stacking, so for MME I’ll be having higher exposure to this game at a macro level when looking at my exposures. This is a small 2 gamer so enjoy it but it’s a long season so remember to manage your bankroll. Happy grinding and enjoy the games.
Max
