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Man I love the NBA Playoffs, just great games and drama every night. Yesterday I felt pretty confident that Memphis would blow out the T-Wolves and that ended up playing out, but somehow none of the Memphis plays really did well. I did make some money straight betting on the Grizz, so it ended up being a profitable night. We get another 3 game slate this evening and all these teams have really condensed their rotations and are playing the starters heavy minutes. There are a lot of great mid-range and spend-up plays but very little value on this slate.
- Scottie Barnes – D
- Gary Trent – P
There isn’t much news we’re waiting on as I expect Trent to play and Barnes to sit. We’ll need to monitor that Toronto starting line-up just in case something unforeseen pops up, especially with them being down 0-2 to Philly.
At Guard my favorite play is Fred VanVleet. Nick Nurse is somehow running his starters out for even more minutes than the regular season, which means VanVleet is seeing 40+ minutes a night. He played 44 minutes the other night and I’m expecting similar minutes tonight. VanVleet is over a fantasy point per minute producer and took 23 shots last game, he just wasn’t hitting his shot. I’m expecting a big performance from Fred in front of the home Toronto crowd. He seems safe for cash games and I even like him in tournaments with some sneaky upside. The other guard I like who provides some salary relief is Marcus Smart. He’s priced at $5,800 and in a match-up with Brooklyn I like the upside. Smart is going to play close to 40 minutes as he has a big defensive assignment with trying to Guard Kyrie and Durant. In the last month, Smart has been right around a fantasy point per minute producer and has fared well in this match-up with Brooklyn in the past (1.1 fantasy points per minute vs. Brooklyn this year). I’ll be firing up Smart in all formats.
At Forward we have some chalk that I think I’m going to eat in Danny Green. He’s priced at $3,600 and he just came off a game where he played 37 minutes. I’m expecting big minutes again with Thybulle out tonight so at $3,600 he’s a much needed salary relief play. I’ll again be sticking to the mid-range plays as they all look like solid values (especially at Forward). Demar Derozan just played 43 minutes and put up 41 fantasy points on 6 for 25 shooting. He’s priced at $8,300 and I’m expecting a big game from him tonight at a slightly discounted price tag. On the year he’s been at 1.2 fantasy points per minute and has similar rates in this match-up with Milwaukee. I like him as a solid, moderately owned tournament option this evening and don’t mind him even in cash games.
There are quite a few Center plays I like but Vucevic priced at a discounted $7,300 tag is where I’ll focus. He saw extended minutes in the first playoff game (38 minutes) and put up 56 fantasy points on 9 for 27 shooting. He’s typically around a 1.2 fantasy point per minute producer so the price tag just looks much too cheap should Chicago keep this game competitive. I’ll probably be fading Embiid tonight as there are just a lot of players getting big minutes at cheaper price tags that are easier to build around.
The mid-range is loaded tonight and I’m thinking about just building lineups with all players priced under $10,000 (With the exception of Giannis). Giannis would be my favorite of the over $10K plays and I probably will sprinkle some Giannis into my line-ups since I like a lot of plays from Chicago. It’s another fun playoff slate so let’s crush tonight!
Cash Plays: Fred VanVleet, Marcus Smart, Danny Green, Vucevic, Giannis Antetekoumpo
GPP Plays: Demar Derozan, Gary Trent, Fred VanVleet, Zach Lavine, Brook Lopez