Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory 1/1/20 - DFS Karma
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Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory 1/1/20

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
D. Lillard G. Antetokounmpo H. Whiteside POR/NY
S. Napier J. Isaac G. Dieng MIN/MIL
E. Payton J. Culver  N. Vucevic WAS/ORL
K. Middleton J. Randle B. Lopez PHX/LAL
R. Rubio R. Covington D. Howard

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Tonight is a nice 4 game slate on DK, and a 3 game slate on FD. Good mix of studs and value plays. The slates being separated by an hour and a half gives us a good amount of time to wait on news for both sites. I would most likely wait for Giannis news with him being Probable, because anything can happen there.
  • If we are starting roster construction on FanDuel/Draftkings, Shabazz Napier. Napier benefits from Teague, Towns, and Wiggins absences and will start and play heavy minutes once again. Throw in the fact that he’s probably the most experienced guard they’ll have tonight, I expect Coach Saunders to really rely on Napier.
  • On DraftKings, for the early game, I would start off with Isaac. Gordon is out again and paves the way for Isaac to thrive in this game environment where no defense will be played and the potential for steals and blocks is limitless. Him and Vucevic are my only plays from this early game and would limit my exposure solely to those two players.
  • If there is one guy I am going to be at least double the field on (if possible), it will be Jarrett Culver tonight.  At 4.1k on FanDuel, he is essentially a lock to hit value in this spot with all the injuries. He’s 4.8k on DK which is a little more pricey but has the opportunity to post a 5-7x game. He’s preferred on FanDuel for me because of the price but is a bit steeper on DK with the other players in the same range. I still like Culver on both sites but will be more exposed to him on FanDuel.  On DraftKings I am likely going to be double the field on Hassan Whiteside who has the dream matchup vs the KnicksHe should be around 9k but honestly DK hasn’t increased his price much at all this year. For some value on both sites I’m looking at Connaughton, Divencenzo, Ross, Martin, Howard, Simons and Okogie. 
  • Once you lock in Napier on FanDuel along with Culver, I would probably pair them with one stud such as Giannis or Lebron. For DK we can be more balanced and don’t necessarily need a stud tonight. However, for Tournaments, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different”. I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • Overall I am going to be pretty balanced on DK, one or two studs on FanDuel.
  • Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter.
  • The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Culver/Isaac (DK) and Napier/Culver (FD)) include (in order of preference):
      • Giannis Antetokounmpo
      • Damian Lillard
      • Elfrid Payton
      • Hassan Whiteside
      • Julius Randle
      • Nikola Vucevic
      • Robert Covington
      • Khris Middleton 
      • Pat Connaughton
      • LeBron James
      • Anthony Davis
      • Gorgui Dieng
      • Carmelo Anthony
      • Josh Okogie
      • Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
      • Anferenee Simons
    • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
    • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
    • NY/POR could be the game stack of the night since it has a close spread and both teams play fast. I like the flow of the game and the narrative of Melo’s return to the Garden. 
  • If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
    • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS

     

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