Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory – 12/26/19 - DFS Karma
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Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory – 12/26/19

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
B. Beal J. Randle J. Allen WAS/DET
D. DeRozan  L. Aldridge A. Drummond NYK/BKN
D. Fox J. Ingles M. Robinson DAL/SAS
E. Payton T. Brown S. Adams MEM/OKC
S. Dinwiddie B. Griffin D. Jordan UTA/POR

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Tonight is a nice 6 game slate with a good plethora of options across the board. The most important thing for cash games is deciding where to pay up, as there is a good amount of value on both sites. There are a lot of underpriced players on both sites making it easier to fit some studs tonight.
  • If we are starting roster construction on FanDuel, Bradley Beal. Beal has been leading the way for one of the top offenses in the league *gulp*. With the Wizards extremely shorthanded, Beal has been getting 36-40 minutes a night while shooting 24+ times a game. Pistons are not a good defensive team, or a good team in general, so the Wizards should have a competitive game on their hands tonight. With the lack of true studs, Beal comes in as my first core building piece.
  • On DraftKings, I would start off with Randle, who is very underpriced and has been thriving under his new coach. In my opinion he should be around the 7.5-7.8k range, but I’ll gladly lock him in under 7k against BKN. I also like pairing him with either Allen or LaMarcus Aldridge since we have Randle’s PF/C flexibility.
  • Speaking of must-plays, if there is one guy I am going to be at least double the field on (if possible), it will be De’Aaron Fox tonight.  At 6.9k on FanDuel, and just 100 more on DraftKings, he is essentially a lock to hit value in this match-up and pace up game, and has the opportunity to post a 5-7x game here which would mimic his previous couple games. He’s getting an increase in minutes and coach Walton loves him. The only worry is Bogdanovic returning, but I don’t expect Fox’s time to decrease.  I also like Payton, Smith, and Teague under the 5.5k range for value. If spending up, look for guys like Luka and Dinwiddie to be my top pay ups. 
  • Once you lock in Beal and Randle, I would look to pair them with DeRozan, Jarrett Allen, or LaMarcus Aldridge. These players are underpriced on both sites and I believe they will be the cash core. However, for Tournaments, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different”. I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • Overall I am going to be pretty balanced on both sites as the pricing is soft today.
  • Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter.
  • The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Beal/Randle) include (in order of preference):
      • Fox
      • DeRozan
      • Aldridge
      • Jarrett Allen
      • Elfrid Payton
      • Dinwiddie
      • Mitchell Robinson
      • Troy Brown
      • Joe Ingles
      • Andre Drummond
      • Luka Doncic
      • Andrew Wiggins
      • Donavan Mitchell
      • DeAndre Jordan
      • Gary Payton III
      • Chris Paul/Dennis Schorder
  • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
  • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
  • Game stack could be the Knicks/ Nets game. I love the pace of both teams and the lack of defense played on either side. I think this game has potential to be very close and competitive. 

 

If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.

  • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS

 

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