Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory- 12/30/19 - DFS Karma
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Sriracha’s NBA Game Theory- 12/30/19

This content piece will be dedicated to providing you with an easy to follow breakdown on the ELITE cash plays, SAFE GPP plays, LOW-OWNED GPP plays, and FADES of today’s NBA main slate.

By utilizing this content you will be able to build +EV lineups and start increasing your DFS ROI in MINUTES.

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Guards Forwards
Centers Game Stacks
D. Lillard G. Antetokounmpo A. Drummond MIA/WAS
J. Butler J. Isaac H. Whiteside ATL/ORL
D. Rose B. Adebayo N. Vucevic MIL/CHI
D. Booker J. Collins B. Lopez BKN/MIN
G. Dragic C. Wood A. Len DET/UTA

*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3 max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your NBA lineups.


Thoughts:

Updates to come to this section as we approach lock so continue to check back for more insight.

  • Tonight is a nice 6 game slate with a good variety of plays across the board, there is a good balance between studs and value/midtier. With big injury news of Griffin/Kennard/Morris being out + Bledsoe/Giannis returning for the Bucks, lineups will be a bit chalky on Draftkings especially with the soft pricing of Heat players.
  • If we are starting roster construction on FanDuel, Jonathan Isaac. Isaac is one of my favorite players to roster due to his defensive stats upside. Today he gets the Atlanta Hawks who play absolutely no defense and are one of the worst teams in the league. On top of that, the Magic will be without Aaron Gordon who is out due to an injury. Isaac should get the bulk of the minutes at the 3 and the 4, and he will be in all of my lineups.
  • On DraftKings, I would start off with Butler/Adebayo, who are very underpriced. For some reason, DraftKings made it so both these players are dirt cheap in their best matchup of the last 2 weeks. The only concern here is a blowout if Beal doesn’t play- these teams have met in the past and it’s been competitive, but Beal played. Butler and Bam should be able to eclipse their value even if it becomes a blowout- I prefer them more on DraftKings because on FanDuel their price is only worth it if Beal plays. Another Heat player I like is Goran Dragic, who has been playing well coming back from injury. He should see around 25-30 minutes tonight in a fast paced matchup.
  • If there is one guy I am going to be at least double the field on (if possible), it will be Evan Fournier tonight.  At 5.5k on FanDuel, he is essentially a lock to hit value in this match-up and pace up game, and has the opportunity to post a 5-7x game. He’s purely a play on FanDuel for me because of Gordon’s absence, but is a bit too steep on DK with the other players in the same range. On DraftKings I am likely going to be double the field on Christian Wood who will have to play all the minutes he can, even if the matchup is not good. The Pistons are without Griffin, Morris and Kennard, meaning their big man corps consists of Drummond, Wood and Thon Maker. I’m not sure what Coach Casey will do here but I’d expect him to throw in Drummond and Wood together which he’s rarely done this year purely because there are no other bodies. I also like Ross, Herro, Fultz, Culver/Teague (if Wiggins/Towns out), Temple, Rose for value, and for studs I like Giannis, Drummond, Lillard as my top spend ups along with Butler/Bam/Collins/Vucevic. 
  • Once you lock in Butler and Adebayo on DraftKings, I would look to pair them with Christian Wood. I touched on these players being underpriced. On FanDuel, I would start with Dragic and Isaac and I believe they will be in the cash core. However, for Tournaments, this is where I believe we can get a little more “different”. I would use the other plays listed below to differentiate yourself from the field.
  • Overall I am going to be pretty balanced on both sites.
  • Below are the players I would consider in your “pool” tonight when building 3-20 lineups.  This is 100% the approach everyone reading this article should be taking tonight.  There are plenty of 3-max, 5-max, 20-max contests to enter.
  • The players I’m using in my “pool” tonight (outside of locking Butler/Adebayo (DK) and Isaac/Dragic (FD)) include (in order of preference):
      • Giannis Antetokounmpo
      • John Collins
      • Christian Wood
      • Hassan Whiteside
      • Nikola Vucevic
      • Damian Lillard
      • Andre Drummond
      • Joe Ingles
      • Kelly Oubre
      • Derrick Jones Jr.
      • Devin Booker
      • Terrence Ross
      • Robert Covington
      • Alex Len
      • J. Culver/Teague
    • We’re still waiting on a few pieces of information, so keep your eyes peeled.
    • Remember to try to add as much correlation to your lineups as possible.  More games go to OT than you think in the NBA and mini-game stacks are an underutilized strategy in NBA DFS tournaments.  (Again, you can use the table above to identify the game-stacks I’ll be on).
    • MIA/WAS could be the game stack of the night if Beal ends up playing. This game will be fast and if Beal plays it could be close. Love the prices of the Heat players and if you run Butler/Bam/Dragic, I would run it back with Wizards players. 
  • If you don’t already follow me on Twitter for more sports insight.
    • Twitter: @SrirachaDFS

     

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