NBA Betting has been up and down for me the past couple of days, but over the last week, this almost-daily tip sheet has generated a 23-10 record. Hopefully some of you all have taken advantage of the insight to pad your respective bankrolls! There are many different types of games today with a lot of big lines. Which ones will stack up?
I’m going to give my picks for all of today’s games since it is a shorter slate. If there are bigger plays that I like, those will be underlined.
NYK @ CHA (-11.5), 221 O/U
This line has gone from -10 to -12 and 217.5 to 221. Sharps all over this game for the over and Charlotte. The Knicks will be without Frank “I have to look up his name every time” Ntilikina who provides good defense. The referees for this contest have a pretty even record when it comes to Home team ATS and Over/Under, although one is way ahead on the under (13-6 overall). The Knicks have gone 1-9 ATS L10. The Hornets have won 5 of 6 and has shot a ratio of 41% 3s to FGA, higher than the league average. During the same span, NYK has actually defended the 3 pretty well–32.9%. The question is–can Charlotte blow them out in this spread range? Considering the Knicks have lost 17 of 33 since November by 12+, the answer is yes. Charlotte has won 10 of 19 since November by 12+ pts. The Knicks are down defensively and Charlotte has some revenge on their mind after losing at home last time. Look for this be faster paced and Charlotte to pull ahead in the 2nd half to coast to the victory.
The Take: CHA -11.5, Over 221
GSW (-8) @ IND, 228 O/U
The match up between Splash City and the Pacers would have been so much better had Victor Oladipo not gone out for the season. But, we don’t have that luxury, so now it’s up to the rest of the Pacers to keep this game close. While the Pacers do sport the #1 defense in the NBA, can it really be compared to such an offense like Golden State that now has Demarcus Cousins playing every night? This is tough to answer because ‘Dipo was so good defensively, and while Myles Turner has stepped up his defense, there’s a lot of unknowns for this shell-shocked Indiana team. My biggest play here that I like is the under. Indiana WILL struggle to score, and the Pacers can still play defense to limit the Warriors. Overall, the team is 6-18 at home for the over/under while giving up a paltry 98 ppg. The Warriors have averaged 127 ppg last 5–they are simply on fire overall.
The Take: GSW -9, Under 228
BKN @ BOS (-10.5), 223 O/U
Brooklyn has been playing great ball as of late, and while Boston is no slouch, this seems like a lot to cover when the Nets have improved the way they have. This is the 3rd meeting between the teams in a 21 day period! The referees for this game have an over 36-57 for over/unders combined, which is something to take note of; currently the public is huge on the overs (93%) and the line has gone up significantly (3.5 pts). On 2 days rest, Brooklyn is 1-4 O/U this year and 8-1 ATS. The Nets have increased their scoring, but some of this is due to player personnel movements. Look for Brooklyn to keep this close and it be more of a defensive battle than the public thinks, as the familiarity of playing for the 3rd time in such a close amount of time means these teams will be able to adjust defensively much better.
The Take: BKN +10.5, Under 223
DEN (-5.5) @ MEM, 207 O/U
This is one of those games where you have to scratch your head as far as the books go with the line. Denver has arguably been one of the better teams this year, while the Grizzlies are heading down their normal path of “meh”ness. Likewise, they have distractions as it has been made public that Memphis is shopping Conley and Gasol. A team that already has been struggling immensely is now facing a staunch and tough Nuggets team that easily put 132 on Phoenix its last game. There has already been one steam movement towards the Nuggets, and while this line may be indicative of the fact that when these two meet (and Jamal Murray not playing for DEN), they play a very tight game defensively, these are not the same two teams that met early December. The public is seemingly all over Denver because of some macro factors–this almost seems too good to be true. So what do I do when something seems too good to be true? Fade it.
The Take: MEM +5.5, Under 207
ATL @ LAC (-6), 232 O/U
The much-improved Hawks make their way to the Staples Center to face the energized LA Clippers in the late night affair for the NBA. Right now the public shows 75% on LAC but only 25% of the money on the Clips, which has resulted in a reverse line move from -7 to -6. While people are also assuming this game will be high scoring since last time when they met they put up close to 250, we have to look at a couple of things here; in the last 5 games, LAC has given up an avg. of 101 ppg. ATL is shooting over 40% of their FG attempts from 3–but LAC has limited its opponents to 28% 3PT over the last 5. While the public is both on the Hawks and the over, I’m going completely contrarian here.
The Take: LAC -6, Under 232
Good luck and good gambling!