Ricky Fuller (@splitxserenade on Twitter)
Monmouth Park is bringing you a full day of racing and includes five stakes races. Racing in Oceanport New Jersey will be highlighted by the Haskell Invitational Stakes, which brings Kentucky Derby unofficial first place finisher Maximum Security as your morning line favorite. Don’t let that be your only draw to the card, as four other stakes races will offer a chance to cash big. Heat seems to be the only concern as Excessive Heat Warnings will are in effect for this weekend. Make sure to hop in our Discord channel for any changes to my picks. I will also be on twitter to answer questions you may have.
Oceanport Stakes
This race will kick off our day of stakes racing at Monmouth. Slated to go off at 1:53pm (est), race 5 on the card features 6 horses, three year-olds and up, running on the turf. Although there are 6 horses in this running, it will really come down to 3 horses. The 1 (Divisidero), The 4 (Projected), and The 6 (Just Howard). You’re not going to get value if you bet the horse that goes off as the favorite, so making a small wager on the 2 horses that go off at 2nd and 3rd choice over the top choice is the only legitimate way to make money on this race, if it hits. Remember that payouts are based on odds when the race goes off. If it comes 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice, you could lose money on bets. Best Bets – 1, 4 and 6 will factor. 3 is a toss and 2 may sneak up for 3rd. $2 Exacta box 1,4,6 $0.50 Trifecta 1,4,6/1,4,6/1,2,4,6
Molly Pitcher Stakes
Race 8 is expected to go off at 3:29pm. I would be absolutely shocked if Midnight Bisou loses this race. If you remember back to Belmont Stakes day, this lady raced on an undercard and DFSKarma had that winner for you. Absolutely one of my favorite girls to watch. The gap of talent between her and the next best horse (1 Pacific Wind) is massive. There may not be much value in betting what would be the heavy favorite. Just watch her odds and don’t risk so much to only win a few bucks.
UPDATE: Pacific Wind has scratched, which puts the talent margin even wider of a gap.
Best Bets – 3 should win. With Pacific Wind scratching, 4 and 8 are the next best horses. $10 win – 3. $2 Show – 4,8
Monmouth Cup Stakes
This race is filled with complete studs. With 7 horses racing, morning line odds have 5 of them under 5/1 odds. What that tells us is that the oddsmaker thinks this race could be pretty wide open. Coal Front will probably be the favorite in this race. If you remember back to Belmont Stakes day, the Met Mile had Coal Front racing and I faded him. We ended up cashing big with Mitole and Coal Front finished back in 6th. In this race though, the competition isn’t as stiff. Also factor in the race being 1 1/8 mile, when Coal Front couldn’t go even a mile before fading away. Just a bunch of overall weaker
equivalent horses. There should be good value in the 2 (Lemonade Thursday), the 4 (Monogahela) and the 7 (Bal Harbor).
Update: The 4 (Monogahela) has scratched.
Best Bet – While I don’t like the 3, I feel it is reckless not to include him since he does have the top class of the race. So im using him with caution. I also caution that if the 3 doesn’t factor, you may want to add another horse for 2nd place. I like the 5 and 6, if your pockets are deeper. $0.50 Trifecta – 2,3,7/2,3,7/ALL
WinStar Matchmaker Stakes
This race is where we can find value. Turf running for 3 year olds and up. Valedictorian (the 3) is not even your morning line favorite, although I wouldn’t be surprised if that changes when the race goes off. Im targeting the 7, which is an Irish horse that had a bad trip after a 10 month lay off and rallied to come 4th. Winning stakes over-seas and having that race sets up Xenobia to have a good chance at being a factor at 8/1 odds. Competitionofideas is your ML favorite and cant be overlooked, but can be beaten. Im So Fancy has disappointed in the past, but is in a good spot here. Im not sure what to make of Touriga (the 4 from Brazil). Oddsmakers having set the bar high at 3/1 but the competition is weaker there.
UPDATE – Xenobia has scratched, which is unfortunate for us.
Best Bet – I personally think Valedictorian is better than Competitionofideas. They both will have low odds. $2 Exacta – 3,6/1,2,3,6 $5 Win – 3 $2 Place – 2
Haskell Invitational Stakes
Just like that, we are at the main event. All bias aside, Maximum Security is the best horse in this race by a long shot and Ive always thought that of him. Maximum Security was undefeated going into the Kentucky Derby and did cross the line first. Even though he was disqualified, he was the best horse. Seven 3-year-old horses running on dirt at a shot for a million-dollar purse in this race. I don’t see anyone being able to take on Maximum Security. Spun To Run (3) and Bethlehem Road (4) are your long shots and I don’t have them winning this race. Against the field, Max will have to fight off Joevia for pace setting speed, King For A Day (who just beat max) and Mucho Gusto in stalking and Everfast in closing speed. From one standpoint, Mucho Gusto could have what it takes if you are looking for a price to take down Max. Again, I will not be betting against Max here. The logical play is having Max win, and a combination of 1,2 5 and 6 factoring behind. Respect must be given to Joevia if we see a fast pace. Everyone saw Joevia run a HUGE race in the Belmont Stakes. The heat may add to exhaustion early on and we see Everfast close. Also from the heat, stalkers like King and Mucho could benefit from fatigue. Really cant wait for this race to go off. Don’t expect any surprises here.
Best Bet – Ive said what I feel above. I will do a couple different bets here, based on odds. $1.00 Superfecta – 7/1,2,5/1,2,5/1,2,3,5,6 ($18 total) $0.10 Superfecta – 1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7/1,2,5,7/1,2,3,5,6,7 ($7.20 total) $10 Win – 7
