Headlines…

We had positive performance across all sportfolio strategies in Week 3. In fact, this week was the best performing week of the young season, even surpassing our stellar performance in Week 1.  Our highest conviction plays (Steelers, Panthers, and Jets) served as some of the strongest contributors to return across the sportfolios. There were limited detractors to performance, but the most notable was Seahawks losing straight up to the Saints, which busted a few low-risk/high-reward exotics in the Aggressive sportfolio. Core, our most important and flagship strategy, went 5-0 and returned +5%; Conservative went 3-1 and returned 1.9%; Aggressive went 16-8 and returned 14.7%. Both our Conservative and Core strategies continue to beat their benchmarks by 1% and 6.5%, respectively.  Listen to our initial reactions to Week 3 action and a preview of Week 4 spreads here.

Performance was stratospheric this week, even in spite of taking limited amounts of risk, which, again, we believe is the most relevant metric that demonstrates true manager skill. Indeed, average risk taken per bet across all risk-profiles was between 1.0% and 1.4%. Taking responsible risks allows all of our subscribers to implement our strategies in confidence. That said, we must caution subscribers that this level of positive performance is not sustainable over the course of the season, even under our guidance and using our robust model-driven sportfolio construction. However, we are excited that our process and blend of quantitative and qualitative strategies continues to be put to the test and reap rewards. Season-to-date, Conservative is +1.8%, Core is +11%, Aggressive is +34.9%, and Multi-Sport Total Return is +26.7%.

Competitor Performance

We understand bettors have a lot of options when it comes to selecting an external strategy, and recognize that it takes time, trust, transparency, and strong performance to earn your hard earned dollars. As such, every week, we will also showcase how our flagship NFL Core strategy performed v.s. who we believe to be relevant competitors in the marketplace – this ‘relative return’ performance metric demonstrates the efficacy of our strategy against some of the market’s next best alternatives.

This week, our primary benchmark, the SuperContest Consensus Top 5 picks, went 4-1, winning Rams, Lions, Steelers, and Ravens, and losing Seahawks. Usually anytime a pick is above 30% it’s an exceptionally high conviction position (1-0), and the Top 3 overall picks went 2-1. Right Angle Sports slipped in Week 3 going 3-2, allowing the BetKarma NFL Core to resume the no. 1 spot, empirically demonstrating that the BetKarma sportfolio strategies have been the most profitable platform across the market through 3 weeks betting the NFL.

Breakdown of NFL Core, Conservative, and Aggressive Sportfolios

• As noted in our Week 3 sportfolio picks release, allocations to teams led by Luke Falk, Mason Rudolph, and Kyle Allen were difficult, but necessary, decisions to make. Indeed, we encouraged you to hold your nose and make the trades, knowing full well it probably wasn’t going to be an easily digestible recommendation. If you had the moxie and pulled the trigger, you were well rewarded, as all three QBs went 3-0 ATS. In fact, both Steelers +7 and Jets +21.5 were the single largest allocations to our Aggressive sportfolio season-to-date (2.4% and 2.2%, respectively).
• Luke Falk was miserable, and a shaky offensive line didn’t help. Both Jets scores were off turnovers, but that’s the kind of thing that can happen if you’re betting a 3 TD favorite. To cover 3 TDs in the NFL, you have to play a perfect game – no errors, no bad luck. We got a bit of both with the Jets, but we recognize how bad this team is as constructed. Until they are healthier on both sides of the ball (Darnold/Mosley), this team is likely unbettable.
• It looked like Coach Tomlin had Mason Rudolph on an abbreviated playbook and didn’t want to put the young QB in necessarily difficult situations. Rudolph had a lot of dinks and dunks, but showed flashes with a few mid and deep passes to speedy WRs for TDs. Steelers takeaways (Niners giveaways?) kept this game in-check, and it was disappointing not to see the Steelers cash-in on the opportunities made available to them (turned into only 6 points). Nonetheless, the Steelers had the lead with 5 minutes left and the ball, and if not for a Connors fumble, the Steelers might have won this outright and a few of our deep out-of-the-money parlays could have cashed nicely.

• We were also vert high on Kyle Allen this (and possibly next) week. We watched him perform well both late last season and in the preseason. He has a crisp and accurate pass, and was playing a banged up Cardinals secondary. Allen ended up torching the team, throwing 4 TDs and getting us the cover and SU win, which helped cash some of our more aggressive underdog money line parlays in our Aggressive sportfolio.
• The Rams was our chalk play of the week, and was based primarily on the Browns poor coaching, questionable offensive line, and depleted secondary. That said, we were not impressed with the Rams, and haven’t been all season. Nonetheless, this team is well coached and competent, and close these kinds of games out. Rams as road favorites does not look very attractive to us though moving forward.
• For a standard $100 bettor, Core returned over $500 in gains, Conservative returned over $180 in gains, and Aggressive returned over $1,700 in gains.

Closing thoughts…

The Aggressive strategy leveraged several positive EV prop positions this week, which are posted and made available Sunday mornings exclusively to subscribers in our Discord chat. For example, Kirk Cousins under 28.5 pass attempts cashed ~$100, and Mecole Hardman TD cashed another ~$400. Please continue to be on the lookout for these prop recommendations, in addition to live in-game wagering, which provide dynamic hedging opportunities to boost overall performance, throughout the week and on gamedays in Discord.

Please reach out to learn more about the overall approach to the NFL sportfolio strategies, and remember to follow our ultra aggressive Multi-Sport Total Return Fund strategy exclusively on Twitter by following Brett Matthew and Zach James at @nonrandomalpha and @zjalpha for free pregame and in-game bets throughout the week (this is a separate strategy that makes trades across all sports both college and pro over the course of a calendar year). Multi-Sport Total Return Fund returned over $800 in gains in Week 4.